40% of Russia’s oil export capacity has been paralyzed: what is known
26 March 09:25
About 40% of Russia’s capacity to export oil—amounting to 2 million barrels per day—has been temporarily disrupted due to Ukrainian attacks and the detention of tankers belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
This was reported by Reuters, citing its own calculations based on market data, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to its estimates, this is the most serious disruption to oil supplies in the history of modern Russia. It occurred at a time when oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel due to the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran.
Reuters notes that following Ukrainian drone attacks in March 2026 on export ports in the Baltic Sea (in Primorsk and Ust-Luga), oil shipments were halted. In Novorossiysk, Russia’s export port on the Black Sea, shipments are also below planned levels.
Damage to the Druzhba oil pipeline is also having an impact; transit via the pipeline was interrupted in late January following damage caused by Russian strikes on Ukraine, the agency reports. As oil traders told Reuters, the increasing delays of Russian “shadow fleet” tankers have also disrupted oil supplies of 300,000 barrels from Murmansk to European countries.
According to the agency’s estimates, Russia is supplying oil without interruption to China (about 1.9 million barrels per day) and Belarus (300,000 barrels), as well as shipping oil from the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects (250,000 barrels per day).
Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast to $85 per barrel in 2026
Earlier, Goldman Sachs raised its annual forecast for the price of Brent crude in 2026 from $77 to $85 per barrel, describing the current situation as the largest supply shock in the history of the global oil market.
The bank’s analysts based their calculations on the assumption that supplies through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at 5 percent of normal levels for six weeks, after which recovery will take another month. Total supply losses under this scenario would amount to just over 800 million barrels.
Goldman Sachs also warns that production losses in the Middle East could rise from the current 11 million to 17 million barrels per day—if, after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, recovery proceeds gradually over four weeks.
