Low price trap: how the virus and oversupply threaten the Ukrainian pig industry
21 November 2025 14:05
FORECAST
The pork market in Ukraine is rapidly entering one of the deepest crises in recent years. Since the end of October, prices for live pigs have fallen by more than 20%, and this drop, according to Mykola Babenko, director of the Meat Industry Association, was the result of a new wave of African swine fever.
“The decline began in late October (pig prices – Ed.). There was also a 20 percent drop somewhere. A very sudden drop, even more than 20%, is primarily due to the fact that there are new outbreaks of African swine fever, which we warned about in 2024, when a similar situation occurred,” Babenko said.
As the expert emphasized, the virus, which has been threatening Ukrainian pig production for several years, this time covered several western regions at once, and also reached Kyiv and Chernihiv regions, affecting even large industrial complexes. Due to the lack of a vaccine, the country continues to record the sale of infected animals, which triggers a chain reaction of re-infection and throws an excessive number of pigs onto the market.
“But now it (the price – Ed.) looks like it could have even worse catastrophic consequences for the industry. Because the virus is actively spreading across the western regions, 5 regions are now at the epicenter of the plague, and the plague is also present in Kyiv and Chernihiv regions.
Large pig farms, large producers have faced this problem. And unfortunately, even now, and due to the lack of a vaccine against African swine fever, the practice of selling infected pigs continues in our country. This is a chain reaction, and new subjects are being re-infected.
Accordingly, an excess of pigs is thrown onto the market and this causes prices to fall. Because of this, producers’ expectations of possible increases in earnings before the New Year will obviously not be realized. It is likely that prices will continue to decline,” Babenko said.
As a result, prices are falling, and producers are losing the expected seasonal profits on the eve of the holidays. Experts warn that after the New Year, the price of pork may fall to the level of 2024, which will be a blow to the entire industry and could lead to massive closures of enterprises.
“And given the decline in demand, which traditionally occurs every year after the holidays, prices may reach the level of 2024, when the price of pigs was 50 hryvnias. Accordingly, this is about half the price of meat than it is now.
This is the worst-case scenario for producers, that they will face the 26th year with very low prices. For many, it will be below the cost of production. And all these fluctuations have caused all this, and they do not benefit anyone, neither producers, nor processors, nor consumers. Because, as always, after a decline, there is a shortage and we should expect rapid growth. But only a few will make money on this rapid growth, because there is a chance that the industry could become very thin.
And those companies that have already faced this problem not even for the first time, but for the second or third time, are unlikely to want to recover,” Babenko summarized.
Export demand for beef from Ukraine is growing rapidly, creating new opportunities for domestic producers. In foreign markets, demand is confidently outstripping supply, which pushes prices up and encourages Ukrainian companies to increase their supply volumes.
