Navrocki’s victory in the Polish elections and Ukraine: should we expect changes in support for NATO membership?
2 June 2025 21:36
On Sunday, June 1, Poland held the second round of the presidential election. Rafał Trzaskowski, supported by the ruling Civic Platform party, and Karol Nawrocki, nominated by the opposition Law and Justice party, competed in the second round.
After 100% of the ballots were processed, it was reported that Navrotsky won with 50.89%, ahead of Trzaskowski, who received 49.11%. Until the very end of the voting, both candidates had almost equal chances of winning, and the first exit polls even showed an advantage for Trzaskowski, but the final results were in favor of his opponent.
It is worth noting that the president of Poland does not have broad powers, but has the right to veto laws, which is why the current ruling team led by the Civic Platform and Prime Minister Donald Tusk is in a difficult situation. Currently, the president is Andrzej Duda, who is opposed to the current government from the Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Elections in Poland are a challenge for the government and society
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko in an exclusive commentary for
“The first thing we need to understand is that we should not despair or be apocalyptic now. These elections are a bigger problem for Poland and the Polish government than for Ukraine. It will weaken the effectiveness of the government, as well as Poland’s position in the international arena. There may even be confrontations between the government and the president, which has happened before in both Poland and Ukraine,” explains Fesenko.
Fesenko emphasizes that despite Karol Navrotsky’s controversial position, he is not an enemy of Ukraine. At the same time, the political scientist points out that Navrotsky “sometimes will defend Poland’s economic interests in a heroic manner” and considers Ukraine a competitor.
“He can create problems on the path of Ukraine’s European integration, but he is not categorically against Ukraine’s membership in NATO. His position during the election was rather opportunistic to attract the votes of critical voters,” Fesenko explains.
“We do not control the voters of Poland”
Meanwhile, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group and political expert Taras Zahorodniy in a conversation with journalists
“Ukraine should mind its own business and not say things that we have nothing to do with. We do not control Polish voters, we do not control Polish presidents. What do we manage? We manage the production of our weapons, which is what we have to do,” Zagorodny emphasized.
He added that the strength of the army is the key to security and influence.
“The stronger the army is, the more missiles it can find, the calmer our neighbors feel. They start talking about us differently,” Zahorodniy said.
Karol Navrotsky’s career and scandals
As we have previously reported, Karol Nawrocki has long worked in the fields of education, Polish history, and national memory policy. Since 2009, he has been an employee of the Institute of National Remembrance, and since 2021, he has been the head of this institution.
From 2017 to 2021, Navrotsky was the director of the World War II Museum in Gdansk. By his decision, monuments to the Red Army were dismantled in Poland, which provoked a reaction from Russia, which even brought criminal charges against him.
Navrotsky’s career was also associated with several high-profile incidents. In 2018, he published a book under the pseudonym Tadeusz Batyr – “The Afterlife Confession of Nikos,” a biography of the famous Polish criminal mastermind Nikodem “Nikos” Skotarczak. Attempts to conceal the book’s authorship drew criticism in the media.
Subsequently, the press speculated about Navrotsky’s possible ties to the criminal community. In response, the politician explained that as a historian, he worked with the re-socialization of criminals by giving lectures in prisons, and as an athlete, he met various people in boxing clubs.
During an election debate with Rafał Trzaskowski, Nawrocki found himself at the center of a new scandal related to suspicions of his possible drug addiction. During the debate, he covered his face with his hand and put the other to his mouth. The politician himself explained that he was chewing gum, and later his team clarified that it was a nicotine sachet (snus). Later, Navrotsky passed a test for illegal substances, which showed a negative result.
Karol Navrotsky’s attitude towards Ukraine
Karol Nawrocki has an ambiguous position on Ukraine, especially focusing on historical issues, in particular the Volyn tragedy.
He has repeatedly emphasized that the exhumation and commemoration of Polish victims in Volyn is a key factor in relations between Poland and Ukraine, and this issue must be resolved before full cooperation can begin.
Nawrocki opposes Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU until historical contradictions are resolved, demanding that Ukraine officially recognize responsibility for the “genocide of Poles in Volyn.”
In the winter of 2025, he stated:
“Until such important civilizational issues for Poles are resolved, I do not see Ukraine in any international structure – neither in the EU nor in NATO. A country that cannot take responsibility for a brutal crime against 120,000 neighbors cannot be part of international alliances.”
After the first round of the election, Navrotsky agreed to the demands of the leader of the far-right Confederation, Slavomir Mencen (who came in third), including a ban on Ukraine’s accession to NATO, in order to secure the support of his voters in the second round.
Mencen organized a public discussion with the candidates who made it to the second round, during which Navrotsky signed a declaration of eight promises for the future president. Among them were several points concerning Ukraine: not to send Polish troops to Ukraine and not to ratify the law on Ukraine’s accession to NATO.
“Today, the discussion of Ukraine’s accession to NATO is groundless. This could lead to the entire North Atlantic Alliance being at war with Russia,” Navrotsky said.
As for sending troops, he noted that he would instead promote the involvement of businessmen in the restoration of Ukraine.
The PiS representative supports the idea of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine, but believes that the issue of territorial concessions should be resolved with the participation of Europe and Ukraine. He also laid part of the responsibility for the Russian invasion on the “European elites”, in particular Donald Tusk.
“Today, Europe is in chaos because of the decisions of European leaders regarding Putin, which led to the war and Russia’s attack on Ukraine,” Navrotsky said in February.
He also stated that “Europe has been subsidizing Russia, which started this war, for many years.” Because of such statements, he was dubbed “Putin’s voice” in Polish political circles and the media.
At the same time, Navrotsky recognizes Russia’s aggression against Ukraine as terrorism. However, his trip to Moscow in 2018, after the occupation of Crimea and part of Donbas, drew criticism. During the first election debate, Tshaskovsky recalled this trip and accused Navrotsky of repeating Russian propaganda.
In that debate, Navrotsky stated that he would like to represent the EU at the table of negotiations between the US, Russia, and Ukraine. In his opinion, Poland should take an active part in these negotiations. At the same time, he emphasized that he would be guided by the principle of “Poland first, Poles first”.
At the last televised debate on May 23, Navrotsky told Trzaskowski that his position on Ukraine is not “Putin’s propaganda” but a reflection of the opinion of “millions of Poles” who are against Ukraine “flooding Poland with grain and creating unequal conditions for competition.”
At the same time, he assured:
“As president, I will do everything possible to support Ukraine militarily,” but stressed that he would not allow Poland to become a secondary market for Ukrainian goods.
