The first F-16s have arrived, but challenges remain: Western media are sceptical about the number and prospects of the aircraft by the end of the year
5 August 2024 09:31
The use of US F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine faces a number of serious challenges that could significantly limit their effectiveness. A number of Western media outlets have written about this, according to "Komersant Ukrainian".
On 4 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Western F-16s had arrived in Ukraine. During the Air Force Day events, two planes flew in the sky and two more stood behind Zelenskyy.
The Economist reported that Ukraine received the first ten of a possible 79 F-16s on the last day of July. It is expected that by the end of 2024, Ukraine will have 20 of these fighters. However, experts note that this number may not be enough to have a significant impact on the course of hostilities.
However, according to The New York Times, which cites US officials, the situation is even worse – this year, Ukraine will be able to use no more than 10 such fighters on the battlefield.
A key problem is the lack of trained pilots. According to US sources, only about 20 Ukrainian pilots are expected to be able to fly F-16s by the end of this year. Given that each aircraft requires at least two pilots, this limits the number of combat-capable aircraft to about 10.
Currently, the situation is even more modest. An anonymous US official told the NYT that only 6 pilots are conducting test flights with the same number of aircraft in Ukraine’s “undisputed” airspace. Ukrainian pilots are only getting used to small-scale operations and have not yet taken part in combat operations against Russian forces.
In its analysis, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) emphasises that in order to use the F-16 effectively, Ukraine needs to focus on defeating Russian air defences both behind enemy lines and in the occupied Ukrainian territories. This requires the use of Western long-range weapons, which creates additional logistical and strategic challenges.
Moreover, the ISW estimates that Ukraine will need significantly more F-16s than it currently has in order to successfully integrate the fighters into a broader air defence system. This raises the question of long-term supply and training plans that could take months or even years to complete.
It is important to note that President Zelenskyy did not specify the exact number of F-16s in his announcement of the arrival, nor did he mention their participation in combat operations. This may indicate a cautious approach by the Ukrainian authorities to the deployment of new weapons systems and a desire to avoid premature expectations about their impact on the course of the war.
F-16 for Ukraine
The United States led the Ukrainian Air Force Development Capability Coalition in the management of F-16 multi-role fighters. The Netherlands and Denmark became co-chairs.
In August last year, Denmark and the Netherlands promised to provide Ukraine with 61 F-16 fighters. However, on 20 August 2023, after talks with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would receive a total of 42 American F-16s.
In order for the delivery to begin, it was necessary for Ukrainian pilots and maintenance personnel to be trained and for Ukraine to prepare the infrastructure. As reported by 
Although the first aircraft have already arrived, things will not move quickly in the future. Belgium plans to provide Ukraine with 30 aircraft by 2028.
In total, Ukraine has been promised more than a hundred F-16s, but at some point.
