Political analyst: Lukashenko may step up his peacekeeping rhetoric after the election
24 October 2024 16:24
EXCLUSIVE
The presidential election in Belarus scheduled for 26 January 2025 will bring no surprises either for the international community or for Belarusians themselves. According to political analyst Igor Reiterovich, these elections will be more of a “plebiscite” that will serve only to prolong Alexander Lukashenko’s stay in power, reports "Komersant Ukrainian"
“There will be no unexpected results. There will be no elections, it will be a kind of plebiscite that will prolong Lukashenko’s stay in power. And there are no competitors at all. He has drawn conclusions from the previous elections and the entire opposition field is simply scorched,”
– Reiterovich explains. According to him, even the few candidates that may appear in the elections will be approved by the authorities.
Thus, the main theme of the campaign will be the choice between Lukashenko and war. In particular, the expert points out that the Belarusian leader’s rhetoric is already aimed at maintaining peace in the country.
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“At least, this is what his statements suggest: as long as he is in power, Belarus will live peacefully, and if he is not, there will be war,”
– says the political analyst.
For Ukraine, these Belarusian elections will not change anything at all, Reiterovich believes. Ukraine currently does not recognise Lukashenko as the legitimate president of the neighbouring state, and this position will remain unchanged. Accordingly, the role of the Belarusian president in the Russian-Ukrainian war, as well as the role of Belarus, will remain roughly the same as it is now. However, after the elections, the expert believes that Lukashenka’s rhetoric may change slightly towards “peacekeeping”.
“When these ‘elections’ take place, and he prolongs his stay in power, he may increase his so-called peacekeeping rhetoric a little bit, because he would objectively like to end the hot phase of the war. It strains him, he’s on a tightrope – Russia can demand more active participation at any time, and he doesn’t want that,” Reuters said,
– emphasises Reiterovich.
In general, according to the expert, Belarus will remain on the same political course as it is now.
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