Post-war security of Ukraine: political scientist warns of the risks of the “Georgian scenario”
26 November 14:55
EXCLUSIVE
In an interview for the YouTube channel "Komersant Ukrainian",political scientist and director of the Institute of World Policy Yevhen Magda said that after the end of active hostilities, Ukraine may face a new challenge – the return of Russians who will try to position themselves as a “brotherly people” and form a soft influence inside the country.
“I’m almost certain that in a few years, Russians will start coming to Ukraine and saying how good they feel here, how fraternal this nation is. I see that the groundwork for this is already being prepared,” Magda said.
In his opinion, this can be prevented only through a consistent state policy that creates an image of threat and clearly protects Ukrainian interests.
The political scientist emphasized that Ukraine should not repeat the path of Georgia, where, despite the war and occupation of 20% of the territory, Russians feel comfortable and the Georgian political elite demonstrates compromise.
The so-called Georgian option is a scenario of a peaceful occupation of the country after the war.
the “Georgian scenario” for Ukraine is the preservation of sovereignty without a final victory, but with a gradual increase in Russian influence and without the prospect of EU membership.
Magda also drew attention to the difficult internal challenges that Ukraine will face after the war. Among them are the shocking figures of human losses, which, according to him, will be the largest in Europe after World War II.
“When society learns the real number of victims, it will be a shock. One. Two, we have become the poorest country in Europe,” he said.
The political scientist emphasized that the problem is exacerbated by the lack of political responsibility within the country. He recalled the corruption scandals, in particular around the Defense Ministry, where, in his opinion, officials do not demonstrate readiness to resign voluntarily, unlike European practice.
“The EU has a culture of resignation. In any country to the west of Ukraine, people would resign for such accusations. But here, no one does,” Magda emphasized.
According to him, Ukraine will remain the poorest country in Europe for a long time, and the issue of ending or suspending hostilities only opens a new difficult stage – from recovery to dealing with the consequences of the war and rebuilding state institutions.
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