Post-war support for Ukraine: NYT reveals scenarios for deterring Russia
17 December 2025 10:28
The Joint US-European Security Plan for Ukraine, designed to deter future Russian aggression, envisions the creation of a more powerful Ukrainian army, the deployment of European forces in Ukraine, and the active use of US intelligence capabilities. This was reported by The New York Times, citing officials familiar with the draft documents, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
The documents were discussed for two days during talks between representatives of Ukraine, the United States, and European countries in Berlin. At the same time, Russia does not participate in these negotiations and does not demonstrate readiness for compromise.
What does the new security plan for Ukraine envisage?
According to the NYT, U.S. and EU diplomats have actually agreed on two key documents that should form the basis of future security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.
The first document is political guarantees
It enshrines the principle of collective defense, similar to NATO’s Article 5, which considers an attack on one country to be an attack on all.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said:
“We are seeing real and concrete progress. It has become possible thanks to the coherence of the positions of Ukraine, Europe and the United States.”
The second document is a military-operational document
The so-called mil-to-mil document contains a detailed mechanism of interaction between the Ukrainian army and the US and European forces in the event of a new attempt to invade Russia.
According to American officials, the document
- contains specific scenarios for deterring Russia;
- describes actions in case of violation of the ceasefire;
- defines ways to punish Russia for new aggression.
Strengthening of the Armed Forces: peacetime army – 800 thousand soldiers
One of the key elements of the plan is to preserve a large and combat-ready Ukrainian army after the end of active hostilities.
The plan provides for:
- 800 thousand military personnel in “peacetime”;
- modern training and armament;
- long-term financial and technical support from the West.
For comparison, the Bundeswehr currently has about 180,000 troops.
European troops in Ukraine: not under the NATO flag
A separate block of the document concerns the deployment of European military contingents on the territory of Ukraine.
Important details:
- the troops will operate outside the NATO format;
- they will be based mainly in western Ukraine, far from the ceasefire line;
- their presence should serve as an additional deterrent.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed this:
“Each country already understands its role: some are ready to provide intelligence, others are ready to send troops to the territory of Ukraine. This is all enshrined in the document.”
US role: intelligence, monitoring and prevention of “false flag”
Donald Trump’s administration rules out sending American troops to Ukraine, but assumes a key role in the field of intelligence.
THE U.S:
- will lead the ceasefire monitoring mechanism;
- use satellites and intelligence services to detect threats early;
- help record violations by Russia;
- monitor possible provocations and “false flag” operations that Russia could use as a pretext to resume the war.
The territorial issue and Russia’s position
Despite the progress in the negotiations, the territorial issue remains a key stumbling block.
Moscow insists on
- on the transfer of the unoccupied part of Donbas to Ukraine;
- on the complete withdrawal of Western troops.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia does not change its demands.
Legal guarantees: a lesson from the Budapest Memorandum
One of Kyiv’s main demands is legally binding guarantees, unlike the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
According to Western officials:
- “New guarantees must be ratified by parliaments;
- Donald Trump agreed to submit the documents to the US Senate for consideration.
Zelenskyy emphasized that the documents could be finalized in the coming days, after which they are planned to be handed over to the Russian side.
