Trump’s plan for Ukraine: political scientist outlines possible scenarios
29 October 2024 09:00
EXCLUSIVE
US presidential candidate Donald Trump, along with potential Vice President J.D. Vance, presented a new plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is stated in the material of the Financial Times, reports "Komersant Ukrainian"
According to this plan, the conflict should be frozen through the creation of autonomous regions and a demilitarized zone under the supervision of European troops. The plan also stipulates that Ukraine will remain outside NATO, and Russia will be subjected to economic pressure, in particular through the regulation of energy prices.
“We are freezing the conflict, Ukraine is not giving up any territory, they are not giving up their territorial claims, and we are negotiating with the understanding that there will probably not be a final agreement until Putin is off the stage,”
– commented Fred Fleitz, a former Trump administration official.
In other words, it’s essentially a case of freezing the conflict while maintaining the status quo.
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asked political scientist Ruslan Bortnik to assess the chances of implementing such a plan and consider alternative scenarios.
If the Trump team wins the election, it will certainly try to implement the strategy of freezing the conflict. However, in practice, it may look different, the expert says.
“There are many such models. One of them may involve fixing the status quo, creating a demilitarized zone along the demarcation line, following the example of Korea, the one that divides the Korean peninsula. And certain political guarantees regarding, on the one hand, the non-promotion of Russian troops further into the territory of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine’s non-membership in NATO,” he explains,
– he explains.
Bortnik believes that the success of this plan depends on several factors. One of them is the position of the Ukrainian leadership. But an even more important factor is Moscow’s position. The political scientist believes that the ambitions of the Russians today are much greater than even the scenarios that Trump can offer.
At the same time, the expert outlines an alternative scenario:
“If Harris’s team wins, or the situation on the frontline changes dramatically, for example, from the current negative trend to a situation that is positive for Ukraine, or to a situation that is sharply negative for Ukraine, then neither side of the conflict will consider a ceasefire appropriate.”
According to the political scientist, there are, in fact, many scenarios, ranging from variations of the “peace plan” to maximum escalation.
“These models may include a simple ceasefire without declaring it, may include the deployment of peacekeepers or not, may include political agreements on Ukraine’s geopolitical place and role, or without them. There may be a maximum escalation of the conflict,”
– ruslan Bortnik summarizes.
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