The Kremlin’s plans in three scenarios: what the world awaits in 2026
15 December 2025 13:11
ANALYSIS FROM 
the year 2026 promises to be a testing year for Ukraine and Europe. Experts are monitoring three main scenarios that could determine the course of the war and the security situation on the continent. All of them are related to the actions of the Kremlin and its allies – from hybrid attacks on the Baltic States to the threat from Transnistria and a protracted war of attrition in Ukraine. How real is the threat to the Baltic states and is the West prepared for hybrid attacks? How can Ukraine capitalize on the Kremlin’s mistakes on various fronts? Is there a chance that Russia’s strategic plans will fail completely in 2026?
Scenario 1: The Baltic states are under threat
The regime of Alexander Lukashenko, together with Russia, is actively involved in an unconventional and asymmetric hybrid war against the European Union and NATO countries, in particular Lithuania and Poland.
This was stated by Yaroslav Romanchuk, President of the International Institute for Freedom, economist, on the Apostrophe TV channel.
“Moscow and Minsk use a wide range of pressure tools – from migration crises and provocations at the borders to drone launches and demonstrative incidents in the airspace of Poland, Germany and the Baltic states. This shows how inadequately many NATO countries are responding to the creeping aggression of the Russian and Belarusian totalitarian systems,” Yaroslav Romanchuk emphasized.
The economist noted that the West has only two scenarios: either to demonstrate a tough and decisive stance, as Turkey once did by shooting down a Russian military aircraft, or to continue the policy of concessions and negotiations with dictators, which only encourage new provocations.
Moreover, in 2020, Business Insider recorded large-scale construction at Russia’s nuclear facilities.
The sites where activity was recorded, in particular: Osipovichi, Belarus. Suspected storage of tactical nuclear munitions, a special munitions base with new infrastructure and an expanded base with Iskander launchers.
Also in Kaliningrad, a possible tactical nuclear weapons storage facility, a special nuclear unit base, and one of the bunkers have been renovated, and a new security building has been built.
“This is not just a technical upgrade – it is a signal to the world,” Hans Christensen, Federation of American Scientists.
Scenario 2: Russia activates Transnistria
Russia urgently intensifies its activities in the Transnistrian region of Moldova in an attempt to create an additional threat to the southern regions of Ukraine. Sources in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) report.
According to the intelligence, mobilization measures have been intensified in the so-called PMR: reservists are being called up to military formations, weapons are being deconsolidated in warehouses, and drone production and training centers for drone operators have been launched.
Military expert Roman Svitan in an exclusive commentary
“This is real activation, and the intelligence is not just talking about it. This is especially noticeable on the eve of the elections in Transnistria – they always intensify six months before them,” Svitan explained.
According to him, some of Russia’s actions are aimed at internal control of the quasi-entity, but at the same time, the Kremlin is stepping up external influence.
“There are two vectors – internal and external. And the external one is almost always directed towards Odesa. This is a strategic direction for them,” Svitan says
The expert emphasizes that the use of drones from the territory of Transnistria can create serious problems for the Ukrainian economy. After all, UAVs can stop any movement, any logistics. Odesa is about the economy, ports, and exports. There is also a risk of strikes on critical infrastructure:
“They can sink several ships, blow up oil terminals, or, God forbid, strike at the Odesa Port Plant. These are serious threats,” says Svitan.
Svitan believes that the issue of neutralizing Russian forces in Transnistria is inevitable. According to him, resolving the situation could bring Ukraine several benefits at once:
“This will solve the issue for Moldova, for Europe, and for us – there will be no problem in the rear. We can get significant ammunition, take prisoners and exchange them for our military. We can also transfer the brigades that are currently holding Transnistria to the east, strengthening the front,” Svitan said
Roman Svitan compared the possible operation to the scale of the Battle of Kursk.
“This is approximately the level of the Kursk operation, both in terms of area and significance. We have the forces, the only question is how to deploy them and use them,” Svitan summarizes.
Russia’s activation in Transnistria is not a local episode, but a strategic move by the Kremlin that creates additional pressure on Ukraine amid the war. Risks for Odesa, port infrastructure, and logistics chains are growing.
Ukrainian intelligence warns, and experts confirm, that the region could become a new hotspot if Kyiv and Chisinau do not synchronize their actions.
If the situation develops according to the worst-case scenario, Russia may not get a new foothold, but its own Kursk-2.
Scenario 3: War of attrition in Ukraine
Russia is actually entering a phase of a protracted war of attrition against Ukraine, which calls into question its ability to launch a new large-scale offensive in the coming years. This is evidenced by internal adjustments to plans in the Russian military and political leadership.
According to sources, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov was forced to postpone the so-called “complete liberation” of the Donetsk region. Earlier, the Russian Defense Ministry had considered a deadline of January 1, 2027, but after consultations with the military, these dates were deemed unrealistic.
The new target, according to the Kremlin Snuffbox telegram channel’s interlocutors, is February-March 2027.
“The deadlines are shifting, but they are becoming more realistic,” a source close to Belousov said, acknowledging the actual slippage of Russian offensive capabilities.
The postponement of the deadlines demonstrates this: Russia is unable to quickly achieve even minimal military goals and is gradually bogged down in a war that will take years to resolve. This is another signal that the Kremlin’s strategy is increasingly not about winning, but about dragging out the conflict in the hope of exhausting Ukraine and its allies.
Hryhoriy Tamar, a retired Israeli Defense Forces officer, assessed Russia’s ability to continue the war.
“Russia is now in a strategic stalemate. They couldn’t defeat your [Ukrainian – ed.] army, they couldn’t break your spirit, and every attack only shows that they are in a dead end,” Tamar said.
He added that the enemy is firing missiles and drones at the cities, trying to destroy the energy infrastructure, but they are not succeeding.
“Every day you endure brings you closer to victory. Your legendary chief Zaluzhny used to say: the one who endures one more day will win,” the Israeli officer emphasized.
According to Tamar, although Russia has more soldiers and equipment, Ukrainian resilience and military art keep the enemy at a standstill, giving no real advantage.
Thus, the three scenarios show that Russia is trying to act on several fronts simultaneously, but its resources are limited, its plans are adjusted, and its strategic goals are increasingly distant. Ukraine and its allies are given time to prepare, strengthen their defenses, and reinforce their positions.
