Rising gas prices in the EU: what Ukrainian consumers can expect
23 March 14:03
ANALYSIS FROM 
Europe has seen another rise in gas prices—by approximately 5%. This immediately sparked a wave of questions in Ukraine: should consumers and motorists expect gas prices to rise, and when might this happen?
Energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev explains in an exclusive comment to "Komersant Ukrainian" that, first and foremost, it is important to distinguish between different types of gas.
“Well, the thing is, it’s a completely different kind of gas. One is natural gas, and the other is liquefied petroleum gas,” he notes.
The point is that gas used for heating and cooking and gas at gas stations have different origins.
“Propane-butane is a product of oil refining,” so its price depends on the situation in the oil market.
That is why automotive gas becomes more expensive along with gasoline and diesel. According to the expert, “parity will be maintained,” meaning the cost of automotive gas will continue to be approximately half the price of high-octane gasoline. Note that as of Monday, March 23, the average price of autogas at gas stations is nearly 44 hryvnias. Over the weekend, it rose by 1 hryvnia. This means that drivers should expect a gradual increase in autogas prices at gas stations if oil prices rise.
As for natural gas for residential use, the situation is different for now.
“Actual natural gas hasn’t gotten more expensive yet. Only contracts for its future supply have risen in price,” explains Ryabtsev.
This refers to so-called futures, which reflect market expectations. Actual rates for Ukrainians remain unchanged for now, as the government continues to keep them in check.
At the same time, risks of price increases exist. One of the key factors is the geopolitical situation.
“If the war in Iran drags on for another month, it will be a significant blow to consumers,” the expert emphasizes.
In that case, natural gas prices could begin to rise rapidly on European markets, which would eventually affect Ukraine as well.
For now, there is no reason to panic.
“As of today, there is no reason to worry about prices and rates for residential consumers,” says Ryabtsev.
Tariffs for the general public, budgetary institutions, and organizations are fixed, and the government does not plan to revise them in the near future.
Instead, businesses will feel the changes sooner. Starting April 1, gas prices for industry are expected to rise. This is due to new contract terms proposed by Naftogaz. However, it is difficult to predict the exact extent of the increase, as “the monopolist is in the market and will set the prices itself.”
Therefore, in the near future, Ukrainians who use gas for household needs are unlikely to feel the impact of higher rates. At the same time, businesses and drivers may be the first to face the new prices. Overall, the market situation will largely depend on global energy trends and developments around the world.
