The political analyst named the likely date and place of the next Peace Summit. Will Putin come?
17 June 2024 20:44
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
“The second peace summit will take place in months, not years,” President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy assured immediately after the Global Peace Summit on 16 June. As the preparations for the next stage of the peace summit began, discussions also began – where, when , and under what conditions. The first suggestions and forecasts came from the participants of the summit in Switzerland.
“Yes, I think it’s quite possible that such a summit could take place before the next US election. It depends on the will of the organising states, the will of Ukraine and the will of the great powers,” said Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis.
Together with political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko, specially for "Komersant Ukrainian" we figured out who will be the next organiser and whether Putin will come to the next summit
When will the Second Peace Summit take place?
– Switzerland has said that they have an idea, and this is a definite proposal, which was most likely preliminarily discussed on the sidelines of the Swiss summit, to hold the next summit before the US presidential election. This is October, no later than the beginning of November. However, there are nuances, it will be an active period of the US election campaign. So it is unlikely that we will see any top officials in attendance, perhaps Kamala Harris will come.
It is possible that the summit may be held after the US presidential election in the context of its results. Either the winner of the election or a representative of his team will be present. Then it could be late November or early December. No later than that.
In support of Volodymyr Fesenko’s last assumption, it is worth mentioning the publication of The Economist. According to the Economist, the date of the next summit will depend on the battlefield – if Ukraine is able to hold its ground after Russia’s summer offensive, it will be in a stronger position in the negotiations -, on Putin’s health, and will also depend a lot on the American elections in November. So the conclusion is this:
“The end of this year is the earliest possible date for the start of negotiations, and possibly much later.” – The Economist.
Where will the second peace summit take place?
The Western media have named Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Vatican as potential mediators. At least, these alternative venues were reported in The Economist. Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko says the approaches will be competitive. The first option is the lines that have been established at the current peace summit.
“Switzerland is likely to be the organiser. From the speech of the country’s president, it becomes clear that Switzerland is ready to host the next peace summit. This is a basic option that is quite acceptable to us,” Volodymyr Fesenko said.
The second option, which is also being discussed among European countries, is to hold a compromise peace conference. For example, in Saudi Arabia, which took part in the peace summit but did not sign the final document, Fesenko suggests.
“Saudi Arabia is an acceptable option. But I doubt that it will be a summit. A more likely option is a conference of plenipotentiaries, political advisers, the highest level being foreign ministers, which is theoretically possible.” – Volodymyr Fesenko
There will be no handcuffs for Putin. Will the dictator have the courage to come to the Second Peace Summit?
There have never been such exceptions in history! An unprecedented proposal for Putin was made on the sidelines of the summit in Switzerland.
“If Putin’s presence is necessary for the conference, then an exception can be made, for example, for peace talks on Ukraine” – Swiss President Viola Amgerd
Swiss Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis, in turn, confirmed that Putin’s visit to the Peace Summit in Switzerland could be organised, but it would have to be coordinated with the International Criminal Court. Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko notes that both the peace conference, which may be discussed with the participation of Saudi Arabia, and the second summit in Switzerland will involve a representative of the Russian Federation. This is where Putin’s fear of prison may come into play.
“It’s unlikely to be at the level of the first person, I seriously doubt that Putin will go to Switzerland because of his fears. And this is due to the warrant of the International Criminal Court.” – Volodymyr Fesenko
Who else but Putin? Logically, it could be the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, but Lavrov has long played the role of a propagandist, the political scientist says. If we take into account the talks in Belarus and Istanbul, these will most likely be authorised representatives whose names will be agreed upon.
But it cannot be ruled out that there may be meetings at the level of deputy ministers rather than foreign ministers, Fesenko is sure.
China and Brazil are promoting their peace conference. Are there any prospects?
Brazil and China are proposing their “international peace conference” in May 2024, which would be recognised by both Russia and Ukraine. After a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Brazilian Presidential Chief Advisor Celso Amorim, the countries sign a joint declaration on the war. Volodymyr Fesenko believes that this version of the peace conference is less likely.
“Some points of their peace plan do not meet our interests. Because they actually balance the aggressor country and the country that was the object of the Russian attack. Because this, although formal, plays into Russia’s hands.” – Volodymyr Fesenko
Moreover, accepting the proposal of China and Brazil could be a reason to put pressure on Ukraine. In particular, we are being asked to stop supporting Ukraine before negotiations on peace agreements begin. And this is absolutely unacceptable to us, and for some reason, there are no such demands to Russia.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
