Political analyst predicts when to expect a Ukrainian offensive with new authorisations for strikes against Russia

3 June 2024 14:38

ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ

The current situation with the supply of weapons and the limited permission from Ukraine’s partners to use them suggests that Ukraine will theoretically be able to launch an offensive no earlier than 2025. More about this in an exclusive commentary [Kommersant] political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said in an exclusive interview.

He noted that about ten states have already given permission to use the weapons transferred to Ukraine to strike at the territory of Russia. The expert is confident that such strikes are already being carried out in the area of hostilities on the border.

“Where the fighting is going on now, in the north of Kharkiv region, I think Western weapons are already being used to deter the Russian offensive,”

– fesenko is sure.

The political analyst emphasises that the conditions for the use of weapons vary from country to country.

“Each country has its own situation. Some countries allow the use of their weapons without restrictions, others, such as the United States, say: yes, you can use weapons, but ATACMS missiles, long-range missiles cannot be used to strike at the territory of the Russian Federation… Belgium has signed a security cooperation agreement with Ukraine, which specifically states that the F16s that Belgium will supply us will not be used for strikes on the territory of Russia,”

– fesenko elaborated.

In his opinion, one should not pin high hopes on a quick change in the course of the war only due to such permits. After all, there is no single miraculous decision that would change the course of the war. Instead, according to Fesenko, we need a systematic approach to capacity building over a significant period of time.

“A year and a half, at least, to restore and increase the supply of weapons from the United States, wait for the F-16, etc. All of this will give us the opportunity to levelling and stabilising the situation at the front, albeit not immediately. Task No. 1 is to stop the Russian offensive. And only then, I think not earlier than 2025, will it be possible to think about launching a counter-offensive and changing the course of hostilities. If there are favourable opportunities for this,”

– fesenko believes.

He named overcoming Russia’s superiority in artillery, upgrading weapons and preparing mobilisation reserves as key factors for such a turnaround.

“In order to stabilise the situation at the front, we need to equalise the situation with artillery. Russia currently has a several-fold advantage in artillery shells. And the situation will not change until 2025. Until then, we need to think about how to stop the enemy. To change the situation, it is not enough to supply weapons from our partners. We need to have a qualitative advantage in weapons. That is, we need modern weapons,”

– fesenko concluded.

Last week, a number of partner countries allowed Ukraine to use the weapons they provided to strike at Russian territory. Ukraine also received such permission from Germany and the United States, but these states allowed strikes only on border areas, and the United States also limited the list of weapons that can be used.