Political and Military Realities of 2025 for Ukraine: What Should We Expect on the Way to Victory?
31 December 2024 18:00
ANALYSIS FROM 
The year 2024 is coming to its logical conclusion. This year, Ukraine has made significant progress on the international stage, but there is still much work to be done, and next year will bring new challenges.
This year, the Ukrainian army has made important progress on the frontlines, but new difficulties and challenges lie ahead. Military expert, former SBU officer Ivan Stupak, in an exclusive commentary for
Foreign aid and its impact on the situation in Ukraine
Ivan Stupak noted that 2024 was a year of “unjustified hopes”, in particular in terms of increasing international support for Ukraine. He emphasized that although assistance from partners, especially from the United States, was supposed to intensify closer to the election campaign, the situation has not met expectations in recent months.
The expert believes that one of the biggest achievements at the front is the successful operation in the Kursk sector, which showed the fragility of Russian positions. However, according to Stupak, in mid-September, the pace of advance slowed down and the operation became less effective.
“After mid-September, we began to ‘stall’ in place. Military goals turned into purely political ones. The president said we would stay here as long as necessary, but this requires heavy losses among our military,” he said.
Unfortunately, recent months have also brought negative trends. Ukrainian troops have lost important towns in the Donetsk region, such as Vuhledar, Kurakhivka and Selydove, and are in danger of losing Pokrovsk.
“The casualties are high, the equipment is better, but we still have a slump on the frontlines,” Stupak emphasized.
Ukraine’s missile program and UAVs
Despite the difficult situation at the front, Ivan Stupak emphasized the positive aspects of the development of the Ukrainian military industry. In particular, he praised the success of the missile program and the use of drones to strike Russian ammunition depots.
“Our drones are really impressive. We have destroyed a huge amount of ammunition by striking large Russian depots. The Russians have already felt it,” he said.
The expert also drew attention to the serious weakening of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has become a “pariah fleet.”
Negotiations and possible scenarios for ending the war
Regarding peace talks, Stupak expressed hope that they could take place no earlier than March 2025, and predicts that this process could be difficult and protracted.
“There can be negotiations, but we need to prepare for them. I think not before March, because the representatives must first meet, determine the location for the negotiations, discuss the format and specific issues,” the expert said.
Ivan Stupak also suggested that the most likely location for the talks could be the Middle East or Europe, in particular Budapest or Kosice, although he does not rule out the possibility of using neutral territories such as Saudi Arabia or the UAE.
Despite the difficulties, Ivan Stupak expressed hope for a reduction in tension and some improvement in 2025. He hopes that negotiations will be launched in Ukraine and the war will eventually come to an end. However, an important factor for this is not only diplomatic efforts, but also the situation with the economy and recovery from the war.
“I would like to hope that the negotiations will take place and the war will decline. That some of our people who went abroad will return. If the government works on a return policy, I think 60% of people will return,” Stupak summarized.
Meanwhile, managing partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group Taras Zagorodniy in a conversation with
Trump and the changed situation for Russia
Zahorodnyi noted that the political news that defined 2024 for Ukraine was Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
“There is some light in the war with Russia. The position of the Americans has become clearer, and with Trump, we can say that time has started to work against Russia,” he emphasized.
Political changes in Ukraine, according to Zahorodnyi, were not as important as changes in the international arena.
“The fact that the ministers were changed did not change the configuration of the government. Instead, what was important was that Russia failed to achieve its goals by the end of 2024,” the expert said.
Geopolitical context and new challenges for Russia
Speaking about global processes, Taras Zagorodnyi drew attention to important changes in US foreign policy, in particular towards China and Iran. Such actions, he said, signal global challenges for Russia and its allies.
“The United States, despite its relations with Ukraine, will put pressure on Russia’s allies, including Iran. This means that Russia will lose ground in the international arena,” Zagorodnyadded.
the year 2024 was important for Ukraine not only in terms of international politics, but also on the frontline.
“Ukraine began to move the war to the territory of Russia, which was a turning point. Previously, we were shot at like in a shooting range, but now Ukraine is already responding,” the expert noted.
Zahorodnyi emphasized that the beginning of 2024 was marked by significant successes at the front, in particular in the destruction of Russian oil facilities. In addition, missiles developed by Ukrainian designers and the bombing of Russian facilities on their territory had a significant impact on the situation in Ukraine.
Prospects for 2025
Taras Zahorodnyi also expressed optimism about Ukraine’s future.
“We can get a very good result. I believe that Ukraine has every chance to restore the 1991 borders,” he said.
Zagorodnyi considers the possibility of a military-diplomatic path to achieve peace. According to the expert, it does not necessarily have to be negotiations. If Russia follows the Serbian scenario, its elites will simply not be able to continue the war. In addition, he believes that against the backdrop of increasing sanctions and international pressure on Russia, Ukrainian society should be prepared for difficult moments, but the prospect looks quite optimistic.
Negotiations or new challenges for Russia?
As for possible negotiations, Zahorodnyi expressed doubt.
“Russia is actively promoting the idea of negotiations, but this is more to demoralize Ukrainian society. Real negotiations can only take place if Russia recognizes its defeats and stops its aggression,” he said.
The expert noted that although Russia may try to manipulate the international situation, things will become much more difficult for it next year.
“The United States is likely to go to Plan B and provide even more support to Ukraine. Russia will find itself in an even worse position, and Ukraine will receive more and more aid,” summarized Taras Zagorodnyi.
Thus, according to the expert, Ukraine will not only survive this war, but will also benefit significantly in the long run.
Thus, 2025 will be a crucial year for the further development of the war. If Russia fails to regain its position, Ukraine has a real chance to restore its territorial integrity, including through a possible diplomatic process. Trump’s victory in the US elections has changed the geopolitical situation, and it is likely that the Ukrainian armed forces will receive more support. The key to this will be both successes on the frontline and diplomatic resilience, which will allow Ukraine to achieve more favorable conditions.
Author – Daryna Glushchenko
