America First policy: how will Donald Trump’s “hug” with Putin end?
6 March 2025 18:50
The change in US foreign policy after Donald Trump took office was a sensation for many. The lifting of sanctions against Russia and the weakening of support for Ukraine raises the question: can Trump become a peacemaker amid growing cooperation with Russia, or do his strategic interests require other steps?
At the same time, his personal sympathy for Vladimir Putin raises serious questions about the future of cooperation between the two countries. How will these changes affect the future of Ukraine? Can Trump really influence Putin? Should Ukrainians hope for support from the United States?
Close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin became an important part of Donald Trump’s election campaign. Only a month and a half after taking office, he changed US foreign policy, shifting it towards Moscow, lifting a number of tough sanctions against Russia and reducing support for Ukraine, unlike the previous government under Joe Biden. However, it is still not entirely clear how Russia views these changes. Vox journalist Joshua Keating writes about this.
Joshua Keating believes that there is no need to look for conspiracies or political intrigue to explain Trump’s actions. Most likely, Trump sincerely believes that supporting Ukraine is a bad investment for the United States, and that alliances like NATO allow other countries to use America’s military power for free. In addition, it is possible that Trump’s personal sympathies play a big role in his politics.
“Trump personally finds common ground with Putin and believes (and is right) that most European leaders do not respect or like the Russian president,” writes analyst Jan Bremmer.
However, this is still surprising.
“It’s very strange to see the US president honoring Putin and making decisions that benefit Russia, even though it is not our ally and considers us its enemy. I think Russia will try to take advantage of all possible advantages,” said Sasha de Vogel, an expert on Russia.
It is worth noting that the Trump administration consists of officials who either support his views on Russia (like Vance) or, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, form their positions based on the president’s opinion.
In addition, journalist and publicist Vitaly Portnikov notes that the mutual misunderstanding between Trump and Putin, as well as their possible underestimation of each other’s ambitions, can become the basis for both understanding and a new serious conflict.
“The two leaders have completely different goals, and each wants to achieve their objectives before the meeting takes place. Putin does not need to negotiate a solution to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, because he sees its end in the destruction of Ukraine’s independence and the transformation of Russia into a new empire similar to the Soviet Union,” Portnikov writes.
He adds that Putin hopes that Trump will not understand this goal, which will help him realize his plans in the coming years. At the same time, Trump does not seek a Russian empire and wants to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. He has repeatedly emphasized that Putin should focus on the state of the Russian economy, not on illusions.
According to Portnikov, Trump is ready to meet with Putin only if the Russian president can offer concrete steps during the meeting, at least a ceasefire on the frontline, so that Trump can tell his audience that people are no longer dying in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
However, under what conditions and whether Trump will be able to establish a strong relationship with Putin at all
Political analyst Oleg Sahakyan spoke to 
about the relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, noting that despite personal contacts, their strategic interests differ significantly. According to Sahakian, Trump is trying to establish his personal contacts, and he promised to do so. However, strategically, the interests of Trump and Putin, as well as their teams, are different.
The expert emphasizes that at the tactical level, there may be common interests, but in the long run, their goals are significantly different.
“Therefore, I think that at some point Trump will have to act tough on Putin, otherwise their process will not succeed,” Sahakian said.
Peace and security: different approaches of Trump and Ukraine
During the conversation, the expert also shared his opinion on the possibility of Trump’s influence on Putin in ending the war in Ukraine. Sahakian emphasized that although Trump has repeatedly stated his desire for peace, his approach differs significantly from Ukraine’s.
Trump and Russia: Can he influence Putin?
As for whether Trump can influence Putin, Sahakian notes that Trump has mechanisms to influence Russia, and he is in a stronger position in the negotiations than Putin.
However, the question arises: will Trump use these tools to influence Russia in the interests of Ukraine?
“Is Trump interested in influencing Russia in this way? This is a big question,” Sahakian says.
He also adds that Trump has other strategic priorities, such as the Arctic and confrontation with China, and whether he is willing to sacrifice his own interests to achieve his goals is unknown.
“Doesn’t Trump want to put Ukrainian interests under the knife of his ambitions? And surrender his own Ukrainian interests to Putin’s interests in this matter? There is a big question mark and a challenge sign here,” Sahakyan concludes, pointing to the uncertainty of future developments.
What is the current relationship between Putin and Trump?
In an exclusive commentary for
Mr. Myslоvsky emphasizes that changing American views of Russia is not a quick process.
“You can’t change the beliefs of Americans who previously considered Russia to be an absolute evil in one day. Now Trump says that this evil must be dealt with.”
He also adds that Trump managed to change public opinion quite quickly, and now a third of Americans consider Russians a friendly nation.
“I don’t think that at the official level these relations will be called friendly or partnership, but active cooperation between the United States and Russia has already become a new reality,” the expert says.
Trump and Putin: Rejection of labels and strategic goals
Myslоvsky also emphasizes that Trump actively avoids labels against Putin, such as “murderer,” “criminal” or “aggressor.” Trump really needs Russia, the researcher believes.
“Trump uses Russia to quickly solve problems, reach agreements on spheres of influence and balance the energy market. Putin has many levers of influence, and Trump wants to use them to achieve his goals,” adds Myslоvsky.
However, the expert draws attention to the fact that Trump acts chaotically and does not have a systematic approach.
“Therefore, in the end, Putin will probably celebrate the victory,” he predicts.
Can Trump influence Putin on the war in Ukraine?
Regarding the question of whether Trump can influence Putin to end the war in Ukraine, Myslоvsky believes that Trump has never acted and will never act in favor of Ukraine.
“Trump adheres to the America First principle, and his policy is being implemented literally. He clearly and sincerely states that he just wants to stop the fire and remain equidistant from Ukraine and Russia,” he emphasizes.
The expert also notes that it is important for Trump to look like a peacemaker, especially during his second presidential term.
“He needs a document that he can use to proclaim himself a great peacemaker, regardless of what happens after the ceasefire is signed.”
Myslоvsky adds that while Trump may declare his intentions to influence Putin, the real decisions about ending the war will be made only by Putin, who will assess Russia’s economic capabilities.
Thus, the new reality in US-Russian relations, which is developing under the influence of Donald Trump, is one of active cooperation, despite public statements. Trump may not be able to influence Putin on the war in Ukraine, but his strategic policy requires him to make stable and profitable deals with Russia. It should be understood that for Ukraine, peace means first and foremost security guarantees, cessation of hostilities, and protection of territorial integrity. Instead, Trump is looking for a more universal solution, which may include giving up some of Ukraine’s territories, which is contrary to Kyiv’s interests.
