Demand is there, supply is lacking: an expert explains the rise in pumpkin prices in Ukraine
2 October 15:18
EXCLUSIVE
Autumn is traditionally considered the season of pumpkins, but this year Ukrainian consumers have already noticed that pumpkin prices have risen significantly. Compared to previous seasons, pumpkins have become more expensive, and there are several reasons for this.
Oleksandr Khorev, the coordinator of the EastFruit Weekly Ukraine project, spoke about the situation on the vegetable market in an exclusive commentary for [comersant ].
According to him, it’s not just about price changes, but about the transition of crops from the feed segment to the commercial one, which creates new challenges and opportunities for agribusiness.
Will pumpkin prices rise significantly this year?
According to Khorev’s observations, there is a lack of direct monitoring data specifically for pumpkins, so it is difficult to make an accurate comparison with last year. However, the market is already showing signs of structural changes: pumpkin varieties that were previously grown primarily for feed purposes are gradually being replaced by specialty varieties aimed at culinary use, such as those popular in European chains (e.g., butternut squash).
Currently, demand exceeds supply for such market varieties, as few producers specialize in them. Accordingly, the rise in pumpkin prices is becoming an integral part of this transition from the “agricultural” to the “consumer” segment.
Vegetable market dynamics: examples from EastFruit
To make the context more complete, it is worth looking at the overall situation on the vegetable market, which is monitored by EastFruit. Over the past week, analysts have noted changes in the following areas:
- Carrots have risen significantly in price: the price jumped from 6-12 UAH/kg to 8-15 UAH/kg.
- Beets also increased in price – from 5-10 UAH/kg to 8-11 UAH/kg, although the supply increased slightly.
- Cucumbers were impressive in terms of dynamics: prices almost doubled over the week to 25-75 UAH/kg.
- Tomatoes, on the contrary, went down to the lowest level – from 12 UAH/kg to 8 UAH/kg.
- Onions have fallen in price: now they are offered at 7-12 UAH/kg.
- White cabbage received a smaller price range – from 5-20 UAH/kg to 9-17 UAH/kg.
Such fluctuations reflect the “stresses” of supply chains, logistics, transportation and storage costs, as well as changes in consumer demand in difficult economic conditions.
Read also: Prices soared by 200%: what products have risen in price in Ukraine
Correlation of pumpkin prices with general trends in the vegetable market
Oleksandr Khorev emphasized that although pumpkin as a crop is not yet included in the public weekly reviews of EastFruit, the general market conditions directly affect it. The rising cost of fuel, fertilizers, and transportation – the entire cost of vegetable production in Ukraine has skyrocketed in recent years.
As a result, even a small increase in demand for “consumer” pumpkin or a projected increase in domestic consumption can cause a high price response. This can be clearly seen in the case of carrots or cucumbers, where price changes were sharp and noticeable immediately.
Challenges to export potential
One of the risks for Ukrainian producers is that if the price of pumpkin goes up too quickly, competition on European markets will become tougher. Ukraine will have to balance domestic demand and exports while maintaining competitiveness.
In addition, consumer chains and retailers may refuse to buy at high prices if margins are too narrow. Therefore, much will depend on procurement strategies, contracts, and crop forecasting.
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According to experts, to ensure the stability of the pumpkin market, it is necessary to increase production areas for market varieties and improve logistics and cooling chains. This will gradually reduce the imbalance between supply and demand.
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