Trump’s position on Ukraine will be determined by his strategy towards China, political analysts say
19 July 2024 14:41
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
Donald Trump, a potential US presidential candidate from the Republican Party, has repeatedly stated his ability to quickly end the war in Ukraine. For example, the media recently reported on the “Trump plan”.
He is allegedly planning to bring Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table and force them to make peace, with each side retaining the territory it controls. If Ukraine refuses such a peace, the United States will cut off all assistance to it. If Russia refuses such a peace, the United States arms Ukraine to the teeth so that it can defeat Russia on the battlefield as quickly as possible.
Trump’s phone call with Zelenskyy may take place as early as today, 19 July.
However, experts are sceptical about these promises and argue that it is hardly a real peace plan.
In an exclusive commentary to Komersant ukrainskyi
, political analyst Gennadiy Dubov emphasises that these are only general statements and draws attention to the lack of references to Ukraine and Russia in the Republican Party’s programme:
“There is the word China, but there are no words for Russia and Ukraine.”
However, the expert emphasises that there is definitely pressure from Trump, because the person who will occupy the US presidency has a powerful mechanism for this.
“We are talking about the pressure around American aid, and Trump considers it a tool that he believes can resolve the war. But it is definitely not about the result in favour of Ukraine,”
– the expert is sure.
Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko, in turn, is more categorical in his assessment.
“What is being voiced is certainly not a peace plan. Trump is feeding his voters a primitive, simple scheme,”
– he said
Tsybulko believes that Trump’s real position can only be assessed after the appointment of key figures in his administration:
“The rudiments of the plan will be reduced to the appointment of the head of the State Department and the Secretary of Defence. The position of these figures will most likely determine [future US policy].”
Trump may view the Ukrainian issue through the prism of a broader geopolitical strategy, where the confrontation with China is central. Therefore, his approach to resolving the conflict in Ukraine may be part of an overall strategy to put pressure on China.
“We can talk about the plan from the beginning of the formation of the position on China. After all, Republicans believe that China is the main donor of the Russian war. And Trump’s position on China is very tough,”
– says Tsybulko.
Thus, both political analysts agree that it is premature to talk about Trump’s specific peace plan for Ukraine. However, an understanding of Trump’s position on China may provide a key to predicting his possible actions towards Ukraine.
More news in the Kommersant Ukrainian Telegram channel –https://t.me/komersant_ukrainskyi.
