Food panic is canceled: the NBU explained why frosts will not hit wallets
6 June 2025 18:18
VIDEO
Food inflation in Ukraine is unlikely to repeat last year’s jump, despite the risks of unfavorable weather. The reason is that domestic prices have almost caught up with global prices, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports, citing a press briefing on the NBU Board’s monetary policy decisions on June 5.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) recognizes that weather conditions have deteriorated in the spring of 2025, and this may have a negative impact on grain harvests. However, the regulator reassures that inflation risks are under control. According to NBU Deputy Governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk, last year’s surge in food inflation can be avoided, as domestic prices have already reached the level of world prices.
“Our food prices are already close, and for some products they even exceed prices in neighboring countries,” Nikolaychuk explained.
Imports as a “safety cushion”
In the event of a reduction in domestic production, the shortage of certain products will be compensated for by imports, said NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi. According to him, the economy has already adapted to import dependence, especially in the context of martial law and an unstable climate.
“It is possible to cover the corresponding deficit with imports. “In some places, domestic prices have already approached world prices,” Mr. Pyshnyi emphasized.
What will be the harvest in 2025: estimates and forecasts
In the April inflation report of the National Bank, the grain harvest was expected to reach 61.7 million tons. However, new estimates are less optimistic. The Minister of Agrarian Policy Vitaliy Koval said that in case of deteriorating weather conditions, the harvest could decrease to 51 million tons, which is 10% less than last year (56.7 million tons in 2024).
Why this will not be a shock to consumers
Despite the potential drop in harvest volumes, Ukrainians are unlikely to experience a shortage of basic food in stores. There are several reasons for this:
- prices are already “overheated” – growth is unlikely;
- import channels are working steadily;
- the population has adapted to high prices and demand has been adjusted.
Prices are stabilizing, but control should not be lost
The current situation on the food market demonstrates that the NBU’s inflation policy remains flexible, and the mechanisms for restraining price growth are working. Ukraine continues to balance agricultural risks with global integration in the food market.
For the consumer, this means that there will be no new price shock, but it is still worth keeping a close eye on the market – especially in the second half of the year, when it will become clear how significant the crop losses were.
Read also: How food prices in Ukraine have changed during the full-scale war
Prices for basic products in Ukraine: how much consumers pay in June 2025
In June 2025, food prices in Ukraine reached the level and sometimes exceeded the European average.
According to the State Statistics Service and monitoring centers, in May 2025, Ukrainians paid the following prices for the main products in the consumer basket:
- High-grade wheat bread (1 kg) costs about 56 hryvnias.
- Pasteurized milk (1 liter) – 47 hryvnias and 71 kopecks.
- Chicken eggs (a dozen) – 77 hryvnias.
- Pork (1 kg) – 212 UAH 72 kopecks.
- Chicken fillet (1 kg) – 184 hryvnia 29 kopecks.
- Beef (1 kg) – 307 hryvnia 16 kopecks.
- Potatoes (1 kg) – 29 UAH.
- Carrots (1 kg) – 37 UAH 20 kopecks.
- Buckwheat (1 kg) – 35 UAH 92 kopecks.
Prices depend on the region, season, and specific retailer, but the general trend is to stabilize at a high level.
Ukrainian prices vs. neighboring prices: who pays more?
A comparison with Poland and Romania shows that Ukrainian consumers sometimes spend more:
- Milk 3.2% (1 liter): Ukraine – 72 UAH, Poland – 40 UAH, Romania – 60 UAH.
- Butter (200 g): Ukraine – 214 UAH, Poland – 181 UAH, Romania – 130 UAH.
- Pork (1 kg): Ukraine – 225 UAH, Poland – 243 UAH, Romania – 280 UAH.
- Barilla spaghetti: Ukraine – 65 UAH, Poland – 77 UAH, Romania – 52 UAH.
- Loaf (500 g): Ukraine – 28 UAH, Poland – 27 UAH, Romania – 26 UAH.
- Eggs (10 pcs): Ukraine – 77 UAH, Poland – 88 UAH, Romania – 90 UAH.
- Potatoes (1 kg): Ukraine – 29 UAH, Poland – 44 UAH, Romania – 30 UAH.
According to the NBU, this leveling of prices is a result of the market’s adaptation to global trends.
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