Over the next two weeks, gasoline may rise in price by another 10 hryvnia, according to experts’ forecasts.
9 March 12:49
As of March 9, 2026, the fuel market in Ukraine continues to experience rapid price growth. The main reason for this phenomenon remains the sharp jump in world prices for Brent crude oil, which, against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East, exceeded $100–$114 per barrel. Due to the rise in oil prices and logistics disruptions, Ukrainian gas station chains have updated their price tags, according to
The most expensive fuel is traditionally sold by premium chains (Socar, WOG, OKKO).
A-95 gasoline (premium):
SOCAR ~73.99 – 75.99 78.99 – 81.00
WOG 72.99 – 74.50 76.99 – 77.99
OKKO 68.99 – 71.99 71.99 – 73.99
If oil prices remain above $100, retail gasoline prices in Ukraine may increase by another 5–10 UAH over the next two weeks. As stated in an exclusive comment
“Oil is currently being imported at a price of $85-87 per barrel. And it essentially corresponds to the prices at gas stations today, because our networks already raised prices when they still had sufficient reserves. That is, theoretically, we expect that we will now have a certain price plateau, especially in connection with the fact that the Antimonopoly Committee is now involved. But when oil arrives here, petroleum products made from more expensive oil will drive prices up. We expect an increase of more than 10 hryvnia, not 5,” explains economist
Oleg Pendzin explains that there are also many factors that affect petroleum products within the country.
“The first factor that has a very significant impact is the hype that the population itself creates. That is, you have to understand that we have certain reserves purchased at fixed prices before the war. They are already practically sold out. Although, I repeat, our gas station chains have already raised prices there to almost 10 hryvnia compared to what they were, and now the Antimonopoly Committee is dealing with this,” says Pendzin.
According to him, gas stations in Ukraine began to raise prices even when there were still reserves of old oil.
“To give you an idea, there is usually a 20-day lag between the rise in oil prices and the rise in petroleum product prices. What happened in our case was this: the Persian Gulf conflict began, oil prices rose, and exactly two hours later, all gas station chains raised their prices by 4 hryvnia. Indeed, the Antimonopoly Committee is investigating whether this was a coordinated action. That is, whether it was a violation of antitrust law. But this was a period when the first expensive petroleum products had not yet arrived in Ukraine.”
Oleg Penzin explains that the situation is different now, and petroleum products will be imported into Ukraine at a significantly higher price.
“Those first expensive petroleum products that are already arriving in Ukraine to some extent really explain that the price will be quite high. Formally, I repeat, today the price is $110 per barrel. This is spot. That’s today and that’s it. Conditionally, if oil is bought at this price today, then in about 15 days, petroleum products produced at this price will be on the market. That is, theoretically, we should probably expect prices to continue to rise.”
According to the economist, due to the events in the Persian Gulf, in particular because it is not yet clear how long the conflict will last, it is very difficult to predict the cost of fuel at this time.
“I really don’t want to believe that it will be 100 hryvnia per liter. But in reality, no one knows how long the Persian Gulf will continue to cause problems. Because, look, Europe is freaking out today. In fact, the Americans themselves have realized what they have gotten themselves into, because at the moment, the price of a gallon of gasoline at gas stations in the US has jumped by almost 12%. Well, we all know that American voters tend to vote based on the price of a gallon of gasoline at their local gas station.”
According to Oleg Penzin, for Donald Trump, this price increase is extremely unpleasant, especially on the eve of the November elections.
“He needs to end this war at all costs, but he can’t end it without anything. Well, he can’t end it without a victory, because he is a great winner.”
Therefore, as economist Oleg Penzin explains, as long as the conflict continues, we should not expect oil prices and, accordingly, fuel prices to fall.
