The enemy has only two directions for possible advance to Dnipro: expert talks about threats
11 October 2024 18:50
ANALYSIS FROM 
Today, the Russians do not threaten the Dnipro or the entire Dnipro region. The enemy will not be able to advance without controlling important points such as Pokrovsk. This frontier remains critical, and as long as it is held by Ukrainian forces, the Russians have no chance of breaking through to strategic sites in the Dnipro region.
Roman Svitan, a retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and a military expert, told this in an exclusive commentary to [comersant ]. “The enemy has only two directions left for a possible advance towards Dnipro.
As long as the Pokrovske line is held, the Russians will not be able to advance to the Dnipro, Roman Svitan is sure.
“The only way to get to Dnipro is through Pokrovsk and Pavlohrad, or from the south through Orikhiv, Kamianske, Gulyaypole. However, there is practically nothing for Russians there. It is more than 100 kilometres from Pokrovsk to Pavlohrad. From Pavlohrad to Dnipro is another 60 kilometres. The Russians, let me remind you, have only marched 50 kilometres from Donetsk to Pokrovsk in just one year. At the moment, neither Dnipro nor the Dnipro region is under threat of military action,” Roman Svitan
Moreover, the Russians did not reach Pokrovsk, as the speed of movement is very slow in one direction. Therefore, there will be no problems with Dnipro this year and, most likely, next year, the military expert adds.
Are there any threats to Zaporizhzhia?
The situation in Zaporizhzhia is stable, especially if we manage to deploy air defence systems like Patriot.
“If Patriots capable of shooting down Russian Su-34s using KABs are deployed in the Zaporizhzhia area, the city will not be in danger,” says Roman Svitan.
According to the expert, the only problem is the lack of anti-ballistic systems that could cover a large area along the Dnipro. He says that a dozen such systems from Kherson to Chernihiv would not threaten any city along the Dnipro. The expert also points out that aviation, including F-16s, which are already involved in the fighting, can be used for effective ground defence.
“We have the mechanisms to resolve all issues at the front, the only thing missing is anti-ballistic missile systems and other air defence equipment,” says Roman Svitan.
At the current pace, Russians will be marching towards Kyiv for 30 years
The key point, according to Svitan, is that the speed of the Russian troops’ advance is critically low. Even the most powerful Russian forces, such as the Wagner PMC, were able to move from Popasna to Bakhmut in just 30 kilometres in a year. This demonstrates that the Russians are unable to conduct large-scale offensive operations with sufficient speed to pose serious threats.
“If we take the distance from Donetsk to Kyiv, it is about a thousand kilometres, so at this speed, the Russians will be moving towards Kyiv for 30 years,” sums up Roman Svitan.
Statements about the imminent capture of Dnipro or Zaporizhzhia are rather an attempt to put psychological pressure on Ukrainian society. According to the military expert, this is a far-fetched problem that is being created to push Ukrainians, especially those in the central regions, to agree to end the hostilities. There are no other reasons for such statements.
Thus, despite Russia’s aggressive actions, the prospects of a serious threat to key cities such as Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia remain unlikely in the coming years. The slow pace of Russian troop advances, effective defence of Ukraine’s borders, and the gradual strengthening of air defence systems, including the possible deployment of Patriot systems, significantly reduce the risks. Predictions of an imminent seizure of Ukrainian cities are rather information manipulations aimed at demoralising society and putting pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to end the hostilities. Ukraine still has all the necessary means to successfully defend itself and counter Russian aggression.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
