Provocation or strategy: how the US and Russia can now take advantage of the situation in Ukraine
4 March 16:54
The events in the Oval Office are part of a planned provocation. Piotr Kulpa, former secretary of the Polish delegation to the NATO Parliament, former Polish Minister of Labor, chairman of the board of the Republican Club Foundation in Ukraine, is convinced of this.
According to him, the strategy of the United States and Russia is based on an attempt to make Ukraine look like an aggressor, and the lack of military assistance to Kyiv actually means support for Moscow. What does this mean for Europe’s security and stability on the continent?
How can Ukraine resist the decline in U.S. military support? Will Europe be able to assume greater responsibility for security and help Ukraine in these difficult times?
Chairman of the Board of the Republican Club Foundation in Ukraine Peter Kulpa in an exclusive commentary
“What happened in the Oval Office was a trap set to humiliate, provoke, and discredit President Zelensky,” Kulpa emphasized.
European security is impossible without Ukraine
Kulpa emphasized that there is no European security system without Ukraine.
“100 Ukrainian brigades together with 80 European brigades can withstand 200 Russian brigades. That is why Ukraine is the determining factor of stability on the continent,” – Peter Kulpa
According to Kulpa, Trump, trying to put pressure on Ukraine, only united European countries in supporting Kyiv.
“Trump played without cards, and when the wave subsided, it became clear who was left without pants,” Kulpa said, hinting at the vulnerability of the former American president to global challenges.
Today, Poland is a critical transportation corridor for Ukraine, and this is where Putin and Trump are trying to sow discord, Kulpa explains. However, he is convinced that European states understand the threat and will not succumb to provocations.
Mr. Kulpa emphasized that Europe has now realized its dependence on Ukraine in terms of security.
“Ukraine has become one of the four key countries along with the UK, France and Poland. The main thing is for this European orchestra to play the same tune,” summarized Piotr Kulpa.
Possible suspension of US aid: what is the safety margin?
Ukraine will have to choose whether to defend an airfield, a power plant, or a weapons factory due to a shortage of interceptor missiles for 5 Patriot systems. These are the messages broadcast by the FT. Referring to Ukrainian intelligence, they write that the consequences of the suspension of US military supplies are likely to be felt at the front in a few weeks.
At the same time,Politico , citing an unnamed high-ranking Ukrainian official, reports that the termination of US military support could lead to Ukraine losing some territory. According to the publication, the Ukrainian government is concerned about a possible reduction or suspension of military aid, which would significantly affect the country’s defense capabilities.
However, at a closed meeting of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, a possible negative scenario regarding the termination of US military assistance to Ukraine was considered. This was stated by MP and member of the Defense Committee Fedir Venislavskyi.
According to him, even if the United States stops providing systemic support, Ukraine has a safety margin of about six months. However, the situation may become much more complicated, so active work is underway to find alternative sources of critical weapons.
“Over the past three years, our military-industrial complex has gained significant capabilities and is able to significantly neutralize threats and risks,” Venislavsky emphasized.
As a reminder, Donald Trump’s administration has decided to completely suspend military aid to Ukraine, increasing pressure on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Bloomberg reported this with reference to a Pentagon official, as well as CNN, which quoted a White House official. Earlier, The Wall Street Journal also reported this
According to an unnamed US Department of Defense official, “The US is suspending all current military assistance to Ukraine until Trump decides that the country’s leaders have demonstrated a bona fide commitment to peace.”
It is noted that the decision will affect all supplies of American military equipment that have not yet reached Ukraine. This applies to weapons that are on the way by airplanes and ships or are in transit zones in Poland.
According to the sources, Trump personally ordered Defense Secretary Pete Hagel to “fulfill this pause.” At the same time, according to Bloomberg, it is not yet known how much aid falls under this order and what further steps the US administration may take.
Moreover, the day before, a number of American media outlets reported that Hughes had ordered the US Cyber Command to abandon all plans against Russia, including offensive digital actions. However, the Pentagon has denied media reports that Defense Secretary Pete Hagel ordered a halt to offensive cyber operations against Russia.
“There has been no order to halt offensive operations under this priority,” Bloomberg writes.
What does Europe say?
With reports of a possible cessation of aid from the United States, Europe did not remain silent. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said that US President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend aid to Ukraine emphasizes the need for Europe to strengthen its own security.
“President Trump’s decision demonstrates the urgent need for fundamental changes in Europe’s current policy. We must strengthen our economic and military capabilities and take full responsibility for our own security. This requires increased investment in defense. Ensuring our security also means strengthening our support for Ukraine. We cannot allow Russia’s aggressive policy to succeed, which threatens us all,” Fiala emphasized.
Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said that Europe will not abandon its support for Ukraine, despite the US decision to reconsider military aid. He wrote about this in the social network X.
“Latvia and Europe will continue to help Ukraine. We are united and determined – Europe must assume even greater responsibility, mobilize and support Ukraine from a position of strength, providing it with military weapons and security guarantees,” Spruds emphasized.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tahkna called on European partners to increase military assistance to Ukraine.
“Europe should increase military aid to Ukraine so that Ukraine can continue its struggle for a just and lasting peace,” said Tahkna.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said that Ukraine should automatically receive NATO membership if Russia attacks again after the peace is achieved.
“It is difficult for Ukraine to gain NATO membership because of the skeptical position of Germany and the United States. So why not give it de facto membership instead?” said Stubb.
Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen emphasized the need to strengthen international support for Ukraine, noting that Europe must act faster and do more.
“I can only express my deep regret over the US decision. It puts Ukraine in an extremely difficult situation at a time when it needs help the most. Therefore, the suspension of US military support means that Europe must react much more quickly,” Poulsen said on Danish TV 2.
Even the pro-Russian French politician Marie Le Pen was outraged by the suspension of US aid. She called the decision cruel to Ukrainian soldiers.
Obviously, what happened in the Oval Office could have serious consequences for international security, including for Ukraine and its strategic partnership with Europe. European support for Ukraine becomes even more important in the context of changes in US policy.
If US military assistance is cut off, Ukraine could find itself in a difficult position, but as can be seen from the statements, European countries understand the importance of supporting Ukraine. The European continent must act quickly and in a coordinated manner to ensure stability and security, preventing Russia from realizing its aggressive ambitions.
