Suspend not help: what’s really behind the pause in US military aid
7 July 2025 15:44
ANALYSIS
Western media reports about the suspension of U.S. aid to Ukraine caused a stir, but not a surprise, given the current context of Ukrainian-American relations. The White House confirmed the pause, explaining it by the low level of stocks in the United States and the need to “put America’s interests first.” However, this decision is quite controversial for many in the United States, including Congress and even part of the Trump administration itself. So "Komersant Ukrainian" looked into the reasoning behind it.
“Suspension, not termination”
“We are talking about suspension, not termination of supplies,”
– explains political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko in a commentary to Kommersant Ukrainsky
According to him, these are the remnants of the aid that came in accordance with Biden’s decisions. And this is where the point lies: this aid has become a target of the new administration as it distances itself from the policies of its “predecessors.”
What kind of weapons were stopped being supplied?
As Fesenko explains, it is not something large-scale, but rather the remains of previously approved free aid:
“This is not critical for Ukraine. Problematic – yes, especially in terms of air defense. But we are talking about a limited number of shells or missiles – no more than a few thousand units. In particular, 30 missiles for the Patriot is important, but not a disaster.”
The problem, however, is deeper – in the decision-making procedure. According to Fesenko, the decision was not made systematically:
“It was done at the level of individuals in the Pentagon, probably associated with the political wing of MAGA. It was done without coordination with the State Department, without proper coordination with the Assistant to the President for National Security. This hits not only Ukraine, but also the reputation of the Trump administration.”
The expert speaks directly about the internal disorder in the US administration:
“The fact that the decision came as a surprise even to Trump’s allies in Congress is an indicator of the mess that is now there. Partnership implies predictability. And we were just put in front of the fact.”
Moreover, the decision to suspend could have been made in early June, as evidenced by statements by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, which went unreported at the time.
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Why the United States does not increase weapons production
The political scientist emphasizes that if there is indeed a shortage of certain types of weapons, the United States should not stop supplying them, but increase production:
“You have a shortage? Increase production! There is a demand. The world wants American weapons. Trump is talking about export growth, so why is aid being blocked instead?”
Fesenko also mentions the situation with F-16 missiles that were redirected to the Middle East to prepare for Israel’s war with Iran. This decision, according to the expert, was the first signal of a reorientation of resources.
What about production in Ukraine?
In parallel, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry is also being criticized. Taras Zagorodniy, Managing Partner of the National Anti-Crisis Group, speaking to journalists
“Our Ministry of Defense refused to finance Ukrainian producers who, through Czech partners, could produce up to 100,000 shells this year.”
Politico previously wrote that even leading Republicans were surprised by the halt in aid, as many were not informed and believe that the decision was unduly influenced by a Defense Department official. However, Taras Zahorodnyi does not believe that this is a split.
“This is not a split, it is a normal political game in a structure of this scale. Yes, there are conflicts of interest, but this is not a disaster. Democrats have an ideological crisis – Ukraine has remained almost the only topic for them.”
Zahorodnyi also emphasizes: Ukraine must demonstrate strength to gain support.
“The West helps the strong. If you want to have leverage, be strong. Create alternatives, attack, impress. This is called diplomacy of force. And it works.”
Chronology of the issue
According to NBC News, the decision to temporarily suspend military aid to Ukraine, part of which had been promised by the Joe Biden administration, was actually made in early June. However, it only came into force in July.
Earlier, in March 2025, Donald Trump’s team had already announced the suspension of military and intelligence support for Ukraine. At the time, Trump himself explained it as a desire to “end the war.”
However, after talks held on March 11 in Saudi Arabia, Kyiv and Washington reached an agreement to resume military supplies in exchange for Ukraine’s agreement to declare a 30-day truce.
Prospects
During a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in The Hague on June 25, Donald Trump said he might consider sending additional air defense systems. At the same time, he expressed doubts about further US funding for Ukraine’s defense needs.
According to congressional sources, if there is a shortage of such resources or an urgent need in other regions of the world, the delay in resuming supplies could be long.
In general, experts believe that the decision to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine is not the end of support, but a serious signal. It has political, logistical, and internal American reasons. But first and foremost, it is a challenge for Kyiv, which means that it needs to become an entity that not only asks but also influences.
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