“Putin can neither accept nor reject Trump’s ultimatum” – Oleg Sahakyan
23 January 2025 17:30
OPINION
US President Donald Trump has called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to conclude an agreement to end the war against Ukraine. Otherwise, Russia will face high taxes and new US sanctions, he said.
“…I would be doing Russia, whose economy is in decline, as well as President Putin, a very big favor. Calm down now and stop this senseless war! It’s only going to get worse if we don’t make a deal, and soon I will have no choice but to impose high taxes, tariffs, and sanctions on everything sold from Russia to the United States and other countries involved,”
– trump wrote on social media.
There has already been a lot of manipulation of this statement in the information space. "Komersant Ukrainian" asked political scientist Oleg Sahakian what these words mean and what Ukraine should prepare for.
“Now there is a bidding war over the start of negotiations. And Russia tried to sell a ceasefire in exchange for something. And Trump’s team is demonstrating that the ceasefire is a favor to Russia, not an asset that Russia is selling,”
– the expert believes.
According to the political scientist, with this statement, Trump has actually offered Russia to abandon any ultimatums and demands for a ceasefire. He is convinced that the US president has clearly indicated that crippling sanctions will be an alternative to negotiations. The expert pointed to two scenarios for Putin:
“Putin is currently facing a difficult choice. If they reject this offer, then the next offer will be with much worse conditions for Russia. Trump has clearly indicated that he will then be forced to impose sanctions and strangle Russia,”
– says the political scientist.
But it is also difficult for Russians to accept such a tough statement, says Sahakyan. After all, it will look like a sign of weakness:
“If Russia agrees, they will be nullifying the power factor and going into negotiations without the ability to create better offensive positions for themselves. It will look like they are giving in to pressure and giving Trump a victory, and Putin will look weak. Therefore, they can neither accept nor reject such a proposal,”
– the political scientist believes.
One of the options for active diplomatic action in this situation is to include additional factors, such as involving China in the negotiation process, the expert says.
As for Trump’s words about regretting the 60 million Russians who died in World War II, they are
“are nothing more than just passages to make the pill sound pompous and beautiful,”
– oleg Sahakyan added.
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Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. Sometimes he suggested that it could happen even before that. In any case, this deadline has already passed.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The idea was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war, taking into account the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, stipulates that Russia retains the territories it temporarily occupies and that Ukraine does not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. The president-elect’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak for Trump.
Currently, the future US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is talking about 100 days in which he wants to reach some kind of agreement.
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