Putin fears a coup due to deteriorating economy – The Telegraph
27 October 2025 04:06
The economic problems provoked by the war with Ukraine, which are causing public discontent, have increased Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s fears of a possible coup d’etat, The Telegraph writes, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
Putin has more and more reasons to worry, analysts say: The EU and the US are imposing new sanctions, business is paralyzed by high interest rates, the national debt is growing, goods are getting more expensive, and the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov warns that the economy is “on the verge of recession.” Since the beginning of the war, inflation has exceeded 40%, even according to Rosstat.
According to the Finance Ministry’s forecast, Russia’s budget deficit in 2025 could reach 2.6% of GDP or 5.7 trillion rubles. This is five times higher than the planned level of 0.5%. To cover the deficit, the government is forced to raise taxes (the VAT rate will increase to 22% in 2026) and will sharply increase domestic borrowing, which will lead to an increase in public debt. The authorities no longer want to use the National Welfare Fund, whose reserves have been halved compared to the pre-war level: from almost 10 trillion rubles to 4.2 trillion rubles, to patch up the “holes”.
Oil revenues are falling, and gasoline is becoming less affordable due to Ukraine’s strikes on refineries. In addition, the threat of a banking crisis cannot be overlooked, says Craig Kennedy, a fellow at Harvard University’s Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. According to his estimates, the debt of military enterprises is $190 billion, which is about 37% of the country’s annual budget. Kennedy reminded that Russian banks actively lent to defense companies without sufficient guarantees to support production for the needs of the front line. Now, a significant portion of these loans are at risk of default. Some large banks are preparing to ask for help from the Central Bank, Bloomberg reports.
The situation is exacerbated by growing dependence on China and Western sanctions. US President Donald Trump has recently imposed restrictions on Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, due to the lack of progress in the Ukrainian settlement. After that, China and India, the main buyers of Russian oil, reduced imports, which threatens the Kremlin with a drop in foreign exchange earnings. “For the first time in 3.5 years, Russia has really felt the pain,” says Timothy Ash, a research fellow at the Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Program. In his opinion, the Kremlin is “panicking”.
In this regard, Putin’s entourage is looking for a way out of the situation by discrediting the opposition to “show that the West is trying to split Russia” – this is a standard tactic in case of internal instability, said Angela Stent, director emerita of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies at Georgetown University.
on October 14, the FSB opened a criminal case against former Yukos owner Mikhail Khodorkovsky and 22 members of the Anti-War Committee for preparing a “violent seizure of power” to “change the constitutional order” in the country. Mr. Khodorkovsky, who is in exile in London, called the charges “lies” intended to intimidate the opposition. “It shows the Kremlin’s paranoia – Putin is looking for enemies to strengthen his regime,” said John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and former US ambassador to Ukraine.
Putin has faced coup attempts before. In June 2023, the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led a coup and sent tanks to Moscow under the pretext of a long-standing conflict with the Defense Ministry. At the last moment, he abandoned his plan and stopped the mercenaries, and a few months later he died in a plane crash. Despite the failure, the rebellion clearly demonstrated the fragility of the Putin regime, experts say.
