Putin is provoking: soon the West may allow strikes deep into Russia
17 June 2024 10:50
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
The game of nuclear blackmail on both sides is a kind of escalation management. This is how Yegor Chernev, MP, Deputy Chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, Head of the Permanent Delegation of Ukraine to the NATO PA, described the raising of the stakes between Russia and the West in a commentary to "Komersant Ukrainian".
Russia seems to be provoking the West to take bolder steps to help Ukraine. The parliamentarian gives a simple example: “Putin launched a new offensive in the East – we finally received an aid package from the US and other European countries finally became more active. Putin launched an operation in Kharkiv region – we received permission to use American weapons and not only on the territory of the Russian Federation.
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“This is how it is through nuclear exercises. There should be a response from the West and there will be. And perhaps it will be a response in the form of permission to strike deeper into the territory of the Russian Federation”
What about the red lines, you may ask. Yegor Chernev is confident that the West, when making any decisions, makes them based on specific studies and the likelihood of using nuclear weapons. The US would never take a risk if there was a threat of a nuclear war. And our partners actually assess the Kremlin’s decision to use nuclear weapons as unlikely and, in principle, do not look at any red lines drawn by the Kremlin.
“This is not the first time that this nuclear blackmail has been put on the table, and it is not the first time that we have crossed the conditional red lines despite Russia’s threats. And there is nothing Russia can do about it.”
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All these decisions on whether or not to use nuclear weapons are made at both the strategic and operational and tactical levels. At the strategic level, the Russian Federation assesses what goals it can achieve and what consequences it will have if it uses them,” says the Deputy Chairman of the Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence.
“If Russia uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, it should lead to Ukraine’s conditional surrender. There is no point in taking such a step for no reason. In order to bring about the surrender, we need to inflict irreparable losses and make it impossible for Ukraine to continue the war. It is unlikely that we can inflict such losses even with tactical weapons (we should not talk about nuclear weapons here, they have other purposes), because we do not have the concentration of forces to inflict losses in one blow.”
Yegor Chernev clarifies that such a move by Russia will not lead to the expected results, but the consequences will be irreparable. On the strategic level, this is already crossing the West’s red lines. And the reaction of the East will not be delayed. These are China, India and other countries that are more or less still cooperating with Russia, because these are red lines for them, too, the MP believes. Therefore, weighing all the pros and cons, there is no reason for Russia to use nuclear weapons at the strategic level.
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Regarding Russia’s preparations for strikes. This does not happen without a trace and will be clear in advance, the MP says. “The reaction to such preparations will be very harsh from Western partners. Because the movement of nuclear warheads, even nuclear charges, is tracked. Our partners have many tools.
So, to sum up, Yehor Chernev assures that we should not expect any random decision from the Kremlin, because if they use nuclear weapons, they will only get problems.
Author: Anastasiia Fedor
