Putin is stumped: experts have noticed an interesting detail

13 August 2024 13:46

EXCLUSIVE

Putin no longer wants to negotiate with Ukraine and voiced the opinion that the operation in the Kursk region was aimed at improving Ukraine’s negotiating position. Moreover, the dictator cynically accused Ukraine of striking at Russian civilians, forgetting how many Ukrainians he had killed during the 10 years of war. [Kommersant] together with three experts figured out what has Putin so confused and what will happen when the Russian president loses even more of his territories.

During a meeting on the situation in the border area, Bunkerny complained that “what kind of negotiations can we talk about with people who indiscriminately strike civilians, civilian infrastructure, or try to create threats to nuclear energy facilities”. Clearly, Putin is not aware of the situation in the Kursk region. Firstly, shooting at civilians is a Russian tactic. Secondly, Putin failed to give any specific figures when talking about the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kursk.

Moreover, from the first days of the Russian troops’ entry into the territory, he shifted responsibility to the local authorities in the style of “there is no army, but you hold on”.

Putin has not yet understood the extent of his problems

At a meeting where Putin was briefed on the seizure of settlements, he was irritated. This detail was noticed by political strategist Boris Tizengausen. In an exclusive commentary for [Kommersant] he noted that until recently, the Russian army had been fighting in the paradigm that Ukrainian troops would never enter the territory of the Russian Federation, and, therefore, the entry of troops into the Kursk region came as a surprise.

“Even in the face of complicated circumstances, Putin is not ready to change his rhetoric. Moreover, after the inadequate demands to give up four regions and Crimea to Russia, a decrease in appetite will look strange,” Boris Tizengausen

This means that Putin is not going to negotiate when Ukraine strengthens its negotiating position. Instead, the Russian dictator can only hope that in some time Russia will “squeeze” the armed forces out of the Kursk region, Tizengausen says.

“Putin does not understand one thing. Now a completely different war has begun. A war when even more of our armed forces can enter any region (Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod) through the wide border with Ukraine,” Boris Tizengausen

Previously, the border with Russia was nominally guarded by FSB officers and conscripts, who immediately surrendered. And if our armed forces enter in another direction, the task will be more difficult, the political strategist notes.

Putin is ready to launch a massive attack even on Russia

“I do not exclude that Putin will resort to massive shelling to show the Russians that we have taken revenge, because everything revolves around the ‘retaliatory strike’. Moreover, it will be absolutely normal for Putin to launch a massive strike on his territory without regard to the consequences,” believes Boris Tizengausen.

The political strategist is confident that despite Putin’s attempts to intimidate the West through provocations such as the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, our partners are watching Kursk and making decisions. So, in the near future, Ukraine may receive good news in the form of lifting restrictions on strikes with Western weapons, Boris Tizengausen is sure.

Putin has only one way out of the situation

In an exclusive commentary at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future [Kommersant] noted that Putin is constantly trying to raise the stakes in the negotiations. According to Ihor Tyshkevych, an expert of the International and Domestic Policy Programme, Russia is behaving consistently in terms of rhetoric on the negotiation process. On the one hand, it talks about raising rates, while on the other hand, it constantly demonstrates its readiness to negotiate.

“When you have an advantage on the frontline, your card is better. It is logical to enter negotiations from a position of strength. Because they first look at the starting positions of the parties. And as long as Putin has the fact of a successful raid in the Kursk region, it is not profitable for him to enter the negotiations,” said Igar Tyshkevych.

The expert of the International and Domestic Policy Programme recalls how Russia behaved during the Minsk negotiations. At that time, the annexation of Crimea was left out of the discussion, and the process was all about Donbas. Tyshkevych does not rule out that in the next negotiations, Russia will want to put the annexed peninsula outside the brackets again. However, in the current situation in Kursk, Putin’s plan will not work, the Ukrainian Institute for the Future assures.

Now Putin’s only task is to seize the initiative. If he succeeds, he will start talking about peace on the terms of the Russian Federation again, concludes Igar Tyshkevych.

Will there be negotiations, but a little later?

Military expert Ivan Stupak is sure that Putin’s refusal to negotiate is temporary. Specially for [Kommersant] he explains the dictator’s depressed state.

“There will be 100% talks, but a little later. The Russian Federation is not pulling out the Kursk region without involving forces from the front. Of course, he [Putin – ed.] is offended, outraged that the military cannot cope. He handed over control of the operation in Kursk to the FSB. And this is his last hope that at least they will cope with the armed forces,” explained Ivan Stupak.

The only benefit for Putin in this difficult situation is an extra reason to demonise Ukraine. After all, we are “Nazis”, “Banderites”, “slaughtering children”, Ivan Stupak recalls the Kremlin’s cynical accusations. Demonising the Armed Forces of Ukraine is a special pleasure for the dictator. Under the false claim that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are “shooting civilians”, Putin is also instilling fear in his barbarians so that Russians do not think of surrendering, adds military expert Stupak.

Yes, most world wars ended in negotiations. And Russia will probably have to sit down at the table.

However, there is another option. If the successful operations of the Defence Forces continue, Putin will capitulate unconditionally. For example, as Japan did after the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or, symbolically, he will repeat the fate of Hitler in May 1945 after a complete military defeat.

Author: Anastasia Fedor

Остафійчук Ярослав

Editor