The rocket as an argument: why the strike with the “Oreshnik” is not about war, but about pressure
9 January 12:30
ANALYSIS FROM 
The Russian Armed Forces launched a massive strike on Ukraine, including with the Oreshnik medium-range mobile ground-based missile system. This was reported on Friday, January 9, by the Russian Ministry of Defense on Telegram. The ministry’s statement claims that this was in response to an attack by Ukrainian UAVs on the residence of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in the Novgorod region, allegedly carried out on the night of December 29, 2025, writes
Ukrainian Armed Forces: Launch from the Kapustin Yar training ground
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) noted that on January 8, at around 11:30 p.m. (12:30 a.m. Moscow time on January 9), a missile threat was declared throughout Ukraine due to the threat of Moscow launching ballistic missiles from the Kapustin Yar test site in the Astrakhan region. “Explosions have been recorded in the Lviv region,” they emphasized.
Sadovyi: First case of such a strike on Lviv
In turn, Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi wrote on Telegram that the missile “moved along a ballistic trajectory at a speed of about 13,000 kilometers per hour.” “This is an extremely high speed,” he said.
“This is the first time such a strike has been used against Lviv during the full-scale war. The city is located less than 70 kilometers from the border with the European Union. This is a clear signal to our international partners: Russia’s war does not stop at any borders,” Sadovyi emphasized.
The head of the Lviv Regional Military Administration, Maksym Kozytskyi, wrote on Telegram that the strike was directed at a critical facility. According to local Telegram channels, the targets of the attack could have been the Stryi gas field and gas storage facility in the Lviv region.
Sadovyi clarified that as a result of the missile attack in the village of Rudno in the Lviv city community, the automatic gas safety system was activated, and gas supply was temporarily suspended for 376 subscribers. “This is not a network failure — the protection system was activated by the shock wave,” the mayor said.
Head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry: We call for a meeting of the UN Security Council
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga wrote on X that Kyiv is initiating international action – an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council, a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council, as well as response measures within the EU, the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
“Such a strike near the EU and NATO border poses a serious threat to the security of the European continent and is a test for the transatlantic community. We demand decisive measures in response to Russia’s reckless actions,” Sibiga stressed.
The Oreshnik strike has several objectives, according to an expert
The latest strike by the Russian Federation using the Oreshnik missile has not only military but also clear political and psychological significance. As military expert Dmitry Snegirev notes in an exclusive comment
“The launch was carried out from the Kapustin Yar test site on Russian territory. In other words, previous statements by Russia and Belarus regarding the deployment of Oreshnik in Belarus were elements of military and political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership. This is quite telling. At the moment, Oreshnik is being used not from the territory of the Republic of Belarus, but from the territory of the Russian Federation,” the expert noted.
It is also important, as Snegirev emphasized, that the operation was prepared in advance. The information campaign accusing Ukraine of allegedly striking the Russian dictator’s residence created the basis for justifying further aggressive actions. This is a typical tactic of the Russian special services — first to create the necessary information background, and then to implement a forceful scenario.
“The Russian Federation prepared for this operation in advance. This is evidenced by the information campaign launched by the Russian special services and Russian media, accusing the Ukrainian side of allegedly striking the residence of the Russian dictator. This created the opportunity for an operation of this nature,” the expert stated.
According to him, the timing of the strike was also not chosen at random. The attack took place at a time of peak load on the Ukrainian power grid due to deteriorating weather conditions. The targets were critical infrastructure facilities, in particular underground gas storage facilities, which is directly linked to attempts to disrupt the heating season and destabilize the situation in the rear.
It is worth noting the change in tactics: instead of massive strikes across Ukraine, the enemy is focusing on specific regions. The goal is to terrorize the civilian population, create chaos and panic, and undermine trust in the authorities.
Snegirev emphasizes that it is also significant that the strike was carried out without combat units. This is a signal of blackmail and a demonstration of potential capabilities on the part of the Russian Federation at a time when international negotiations on security guarantees for Ukraine are intensifying. Moscow is thus attempting to block the peace process and impose its own terms.
Oreshnik strike on Dnipro
Prior to this, Russia used the Oreshnik on the night of November 20-21, 2024, to strike Dnipro. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin then stated that the strike was carried out with a “ballistic missile in non-nuclear hypersonic equipment.” According to Putin, the Oreshnik has a range of 1,000-5,500 kilometers.
Oreshnik: main characteristics
According to the Ukrainian military, the missile can reach speeds of over 12,300 km/h. It is equipped with six warheads, each containing submunitions. The missile is likely to be difficult for air defense systems to intercept.
After the strike on Dnipro, Vladimir Putin insisted that the missile was a new development of Russian industry.
Later, during a “direct line” broadcast, while boasting about the weapon, the Russian dictator shocked viewers by saying that he was ready to conduct an experiment: could any air defense system shoot down the “Oreshnik,” for example, over Kyiv?
“Some experts in the West believe that such a missile is easy to shoot down, especially at the initial stage of flight. What can I say to such experts… Let them determine the targets for destruction in Kyiv, concentrate all their air defense systems there, and we will strike there with the Oreshnik — and see what happens,” Putin said.
“We are ready for such an experiment. Is the other side ready? Well, in any case, we do not rule it out… And it will be interesting for us… We will conduct such a ‘technological experiment’, such a ‘technological duel’, and see what happens,” Putin said at the end of 2024 at a conference.
Volodymyr Zelensky then called the proposal inappropriate.
According to Vladimir Putin, the Oreshnik missile is a medium-range missile. The development of this type of missile was prohibited until 2019, while the Treaty on the Elimination of Short-Range and Intermediate-Range Missiles was in force.
Therefore, either Russia developed such a missile before 2019, violating the treaty, or it managed to create a new one in a short time. Or it is a modification of old Soviet weapons.
