Rare earth compromise: how the US-Ukraine deal could change the political landscape
4 March 17:40
Relations between Kyiv and Washington deteriorated after a spat at the White House between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. Most importantly, an important agreement was not signed on the joint development of rare earth metals in Ukraine.
Trump wants the deal to be concluded as soon as possible, and even said that “the deal on the development of Ukraine’s resources by the Americans is not dead yet.” How the conclusion of this deal could affect peace and security guarantees for Ukraine, analyzed
The essence of the agreement, which is much talked about but little seen or read, is that the governments of the United States and Ukraine enter into a bilateral agreement to establish a Recovery Investment Fund to promote Ukraine’s stable development and recovery after the war.
The agreement defines the general rules and conditions for the management of the fund, which will include investments from both sides, including a portion of the revenues from the monetization of Ukraine’s natural resources.
The main goal is to ensure lasting peace in Ukraine and strengthen the partnership between the two countries. The agreement stipulates that the United States will support a stable economy in Ukraine and provide financial commitments for its recovery.
The Ukrainian government will also provide a portion of its natural resource revenues to finance the fund, with both sides jointly managing and controlling the use of the funds. In other words, the deal is beneficial not only to the United States but also to Ukraine.
Political pressure will be strong
The most important thing is that the agreement on rare earth resources between Ukraine and the United States is part of the agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Thanks to this agreement, the United States retains its influence on Ukraine, and Ukraine receives guarantees that the US will maintain its interest in the country. Exactly the same as the European security guarantees, notes
“These are issues that are resolved within the framework of a combat agreement and are an integral part of peace agreements. And it can even be called an additional agreement to a large peace agreement. It is part of the code of peace agreements that must be concluded to end the war,” Ruslan Bortnik emphasizes.
According to political scientist Andriy Zolotarev, who shared his opinion with
“Plus, it is also a matter of long-term influence on Ukraine’s policy, as the arrival of US companies in the country will provide an opportunity for this influence. After all, all investments and participation in production will be made without tenders, without the participation of Ukrainian officials. This is important. But in the Oval Office, he saw that Zelenskyy was not the solution to the problem, but part of the problem. And he will not solve this “part of the problem” by washing it, but by riding it. Political pressure will be strong. And we are waiting for interesting stories about Ukrainian corruption, perhaps arms trafficking, and it is possible that sanctions against people who are not strangers to Zelensky will be imposed,” political analyst Andriy Zolotarev tells
. [Kommersant]
A win-win deal
But there is also the question of the fields that ended up in the newly occupied territories. And, according to political analysts, Putin and Trump should negotiate their production. It is hard to say whether there will be territorial concessions. According to Ruslan Bortnik, we may be demanded not to interfere with mining in the occupied territories.
“It is important to understand that the agreement on joint mining cannot include security guarantees, as its purpose is purely commercial and it does not address political issues. Therefore, it is wrong to include overt political clauses. The guarantees should be included in other agreements, for example, on military and political cooperation with the United States. As for the territories that Russia has seized, but which it has not incorporated into its Constitution, for example, part of the Kharkiv region, the United States can help. But we need to negotiate,” Ruslan Bortnik believes.
Political analysts are confident that the minerals agreement will be signed and it will become a strong bond between the US and Ukraine.
“For the US, this agreement is about preserving Ukraine’s interests, and for Ukraine, this agreement is a link to the US administration, where the key interest is maintained between the countries,” Ruslan Bortnik said.
According to Andriy Zolotarev, March will be a turning point and the minerals deal will be signed, as the White House is already trying to push Zelenskyy and his entourage through.
Author: Alla Dunina
