Sharp jump in prices at gas stations: will there be a fuel shortage?
3 March 12:15
ANALYSIS 
Ukrainians are complaining en masse on social media about the sharp rise in fuel prices at gas stations. In just one day, prices at some gas stations rose by 2 hryvnia per liter, causing a wave of outrage and fears of a possible shortage.
Is there any reason to panic?
2 hryvnia per liter per day: what is happening
According to market monitoring data, gasoline and diesel prices at a number of gas stations have risen by 2-3 hryvnia per liter in recent days. This refers to fuel sold from previously formed reserves.
The cost of A-95 premium gasoline at popular gas stations as of March 2:
- AMIC – 65.63 UAH,
- BVS – 66.99 UAH,
- KLO – 65.89 UAH,
- Marshal – 63.74 UAH,
- SOCAR – 69.13 UAH,
- UPG – 65.90 UAH,
- WOG – 69.99 UAH,
- OKKO – 69.99 UAH,
- Ukrnafta – 67.09 UAH.
Social media users are posting photos and noting that as of the morning of March 3, the price of A-95 premium gasoline is already 71.99 UAH.
At the same time, global news about the tense situation in the Middle East and risks to crude oil supplies have already affected prices on world markets.
However, it is important to understand that Ukraine does not buy crude oil in the Middle East and does not process it independently. We import ready-made petroleum products from the European market.
Fuel analysis: could prices have risen so quickly?
The current increase raises questions, as the fuel currently sold at gas stations was purchased earlier at lower prices.
Ukraine does not have large strategic fuel reserves due to constant Russian attacks on oil depots and logistics infrastructure. A significant part of the supplies comes “from the wheels” — that is, without long-term storage.
However, it is physically impossible for the instability in the crude oil market that arose a few days ago to instantly translate into a sharp rise in prices at Ukrainian gas stations.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Policy Analysis at the National Security and Defense Council, emphasizes that there is currently no reason to raise fuel prices in Ukraine.
“The current price increase at gas stations in Ukraine is speculative. No temporary increase in oil prices gives reason to raise prices for old fuel reserves,” he said.
Price increases are premature
Energy expert Mykhailo Gonchar in an exclusive comment
“Speculation. Definitely. There is nothing to explain here. First, we do not buy oil in the Middle East and do not refine it. We buy finished petroleum products. Yes, they are imported. Yes, imports have become more expensive. But this does not mean that the reserves that were available to gas station chains here have already been imported, which only became more expensive yesterday somewhere in Europe,” he stressed.
According to the expert, the current jump is the result of the information background.
“It is simply physically impossible that three days ago instability began in the supply of crude oil, and now petroleum products are immediately becoming more expensive in Ukraine. This is simply an attempt, so to speak, to ‘make easy money’. This is how psychology works, extortionate,” Gonchar noted.
At the same time, he acknowledged that in the event of a protracted crisis in the Persian Gulf, price increases would be inevitable.
“Undoubtedly, we will not be able to avoid price increases in the future if the situation drags on. But now speculators are working in both the crude oil and petroleum products markets.”
Will there be a fuel shortage?
When asked whether Ukrainians should buy fuel “in reserve,” the expert replied unequivocally:
“There is no need to rush, buy up supplies, or panic. There is no fuel shortage. Neither in Ukraine nor in Europe. There is no need to fill up jerry cans and wait for fuel to run out tomorrow. The situation is such that there is enough of everything coming in. We need to wait it out.”
Thus, at the moment, we are not talking about a physical shortage, but about the market’s reaction to geopolitical tensions and psychological factors.
