Russia is amassing troops: where the enemy has advanced in Sumy region and what other regions are under threat
29 May 2025 12:08
ANALYSIS
Recently, Russian troops have intensified their attempts to break through in the Sumy region, using small assault units. They have recently managed to gain a foothold in several border villages and are now trying to expand their area of control.
Previously, the border area of Sumy region, where the invaders tried to break through, was considered a “gray” zone – there was no stable control from any side. Although the invaders periodically penetrated there in small groups, they were unable to hold their positions for long.
Recently, however, Russian forces have managed to achieve their goal. In particular, the enemy has gained a foothold in the Veselivka – Zhuravka – Novenke – Basivka area and is now trying to advance towards Bilovody. The situation in Loknya also remains tense, according to DeepState analysts.
Officially, on May 26, the head of the Sumy Regional Military Administration, Oleh Hryhorov, confirmed on his Facebook page that four settlements had come under the control of the occupiers:
- Novenke and Basivka (Yunakivska community);
- Veselivka and Zhuravka (Khotyn community).
According to him, the local population was evacuated in advance, so now civilians are not in danger.
Russia is creating a front in Sumy region to pull Ukrainian reserves away from Donbas and Zaporizhzhia
Roman Svitan, a military expert, pilot-instructor and retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in a conversation with "Komersant Ukrainian", says that the fighting in Sumy region should be seen as part of a larger logic of warfare. Both sides are maneuvering – sometimes deliberately retreating from certain areas to take more favorable positions.
“Somewhere we will enter their territory, somewhere the Russians will enter ours. Sometimes we even deliberately retreat a few kilometers to avoid holding the lowlands, which are dominated by Russian troops from the heights,”
– Svitan says.
The colonel emphasizes that the events in Sumy region are not an isolated case – a similar situation is observed in areas on the border of Kharkiv and Belgorod regions, in particular near Popivka and Demydivka.
“All of this is the formation of a new front line. Both the Russians and we are creating an additional 500 kilometers of combat line,”
– emphasizes the expert.
In fact, he believes that Russia’s main goal is not the north, but the center of the front, in particular the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk directions. Everything that is happening in the Sumy region is just an attempt to stretch Ukrainian reserves. Svitan emphasizes that in order to weaken the Ukrainian defense in the main areas, Russia will intensify its actions in other parts of the frontline, such as Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and the right-bank part of Kherson.
“They will try to create a bridgehead on the right bank of the Dnipro. This is a tactical or even operational-tactical action – again, to stretch our reserves,”
– says a retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Occupants are trying to break through on motorcycles
Andriy Demchenko, a spokesman for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, notes that Russian troops have recently been using the tactics of small assault groups in Sumy region more actively. According to him, the occupiers sometimes break through to Ukrainian territory using ATVs and motorcycles – they rely on speed to penetrate as deeply as possible into the country.
After penetrating, these groups try to hide in makeshift shelters and wait for reinforcements to continue fighting with larger forces. Such groups are most active in the areas of Basivka and Zhuravka. At the same time, Russians are expanding the use of this tactic in the areas of Veselivka and Volodymyrivka.
Roman Svitan explains that the tactic used by the Russians in Sumy region has an ancient origin and is called tactical infiltration. The idea is to pass between enemy strongholds, either undetected or quickly to avoid being hit.
Svitan distinguishes between two methods of infiltration.
Unnoticed infiltration, as done by intelligence:
“Army reconnaissance enters enemy territory undetected, completes its mission and returns.”
Rapid penetration using light vehicles:
“What can give more speed? Anything – starting with scooters, donkeys, motorcycles”
Motorcycles and ATVs allow you to move quickly and remain less visible than armored vehicles. After infiltration, small groups gather at pre-determined points and form full-fledged combat units.
“They can infiltrate one by one, two by two, three by three… Then they have gathering places where they accumulate to the level of a combat unit,”
– says the military expert.
When a unit is formed, it can perform one of the combat tasks:
- attack the rear of Ukrainian forces;
- create a bridgehead for further advance of the main units.
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Situation in Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions
The spokesman for the Siversk operational and tactical group, Vadym Misnyk, whose area of responsibility includes Chernihiv, Sumy and part of Kharkiv region, confirmed that Russian troops are amassing forces in Kursk region and are trying to expand combat activity in Sumy region using small infantry groups.
According to him, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively destroying the enemy, preventing it from advancing deeper into the territory. According to Mr. Mysnyk, the enemy’s tactics remain almost unchanged – they use combined attacks, combining air strikes and ground forces. He clarified that enemy infantry movement is most often carried out using motorcycles and ATVs, as heavy equipment is ineffective in these areas.
“We quickly detect these groups and destroy them. The enemy tries to use the advantage in numbers, makes its way deeper, accumulates forces and tries to gain a foothold,”
– said Misnyk during the telethon.
He also added that, despite significant losses, Russian troops continue to conduct a kind of reconnaissance by combat – attacking different directions to identify weaknesses in Ukrainian defense, and then launching artillery and air strikes.
Asked whether the situation in the border areas of Chernihiv region is calmer than in Sumy region, Mysnyk said that such a comparison is incorrect. He explained that the length of Chernihiv region’s border with Russia is half that of Sumy region. In addition, Russian aviation launched guided missile strikes in Chernihiv region yesterday. According to him, the enemy is constantly operating along the entire border, and the Ukrainian side is recording their military presence.
Is there a threat of seizure of Kharkiv?
According to Svitan, a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv to capture it is unrealistic due to the size of the city and the number of troops required.
“To attack Kharkiv, or even just to plan it, Russia needs an army of at least one and a half million. This is three times more than they currently have in the occupied territories,”
– Svitan said.
According to the expert, Russia is unlikely to storm Kharkiv itself. Instead, it may try to cut the logistics routes connecting Kharkiv with Sumy and Kyiv.
“An attempt to cut the logistics – the directions to Okhtyrka and Bohodukhiv, which connect Kharkiv with Sumy and Kyiv – looks more realistic. But even there, they are unlikely to enter the cities themselves. Because as soon as they get bogged down, as it was in Vovchansk, that’s it – their offensive will stop,”
– the military analyst is convinced.
Russian forces may operate between Okhtyrka and Bohodukhiv, or between Bohodukhiv and Kharkiv, but these attempts are not unnoticed by Ukrainian intelligence.
The main threat to Kharkiv is artillery and aviation
Although an assault on Kharkiv is unlikely, there is still a real threat to the city. It is the proximity of the frontline and shelling.
“Kharkiv’s problem is not a ground offensive. The problem is that the front is too close. Artillery reaches the city, especially Saltovka. And, of course, rocket attacks and air bombs,”
– says Roman Svitan.
In his opinion, the most effective way to protect Kharkiv from attacks is to create a buffer zone on the territory of Russia.
“To solve this problem, we need to enter the territory of the Belgorod region. To ensure the security zone, Kharkiv needs at least 50 km of buffer. That is, we need to move about 30 km deeper into Russia,”
– summarizes the military analyst.
Thus, the situation in Sumy region is not just another phase of hostilities, but part of a broader strategic plan on the part of Russia. The intensification of offensives in the Sumy region, the use of small assault groups and maneuvering in the Kharkiv region are all due to Russia’s desire to create additional tension for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to experts, the main goal is not Sumy or Chernihiv regions, but the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia directions. While the Ukrainian command is forced to respond to the expansion of the front, the enemy is looking for vulnerabilities for a large-scale breakthrough in other parts of the front.
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