Russian oil keeps up the pace: why US tariffs and refinery strikes are not stopping exports yet
12 August 2025 21:10
Russian marine shipments of crude oil fell for the third week in a row, but are still within the annual range. This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to Bloomberg.
Despite the threat of additional duties, the market does not show a significant reduction in flows. This is happening on the eve of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin scheduled for Friday.
According to media reports, the average four-week oil supply from Russia fell to 3.11 million barrels per day as of August 10. This is about 3% less than in the previous reporting period (3.21 million barrels per day). At the same time, the weekly average rose, indicating instability in weekly volumes.
The impact of US tariffs and India’s position
The market situation is complicated by the additional 25% tariffs imposed by the US President on Indian exports to the US. This has already forced India’s state-owned oil refineries to purchase some crude oil from alternative sources. However, experts note that the real impact of this step on Russian oil supplies can be assessed only in a few weeks.
Companies are likely to refrain from spot purchases of Russian oil for October deliveries, awaiting government guidance. If customs restrictions remain in place, the effect will be felt after these shipments are loaded. At the same time, the market takes into account the possibility that the tariffs will be lifted by the time the ships reach India.
The introduction of duties is scheduled for August 27, but they can still be revised. Donald Trump has also hinted at the possibility of new tariffs on China, although White House trade adviser Peter Navarro characterized the likelihood of such a move as low.
Geopolitical context and supply routes
Despite the tensions, Russian shipments from ports in the Pacific and Baltic continue uninterrupted. The vast majority of Pacific shipments go to China. Delivery from the Baltic to the west coast of India takes about a month, which leaves time for a possible elimination of duties.
Against this backdrop, Trump and Putin are planning a meeting in Alaska to discuss the war in Ukraine. The market is closely monitoring the outcome of the talks, but so far they have not affected export dynamics.
Read also: Oil prices fall amid expectations of Trump-Putin meeting
Strike on Russian refineries and potential impact on exports
An additional factor was Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries in early August. Rosneft’s facilities in Ryazan and Novokuibyshevsk, as well as the Saratov refinery, where crude oil intake was halted after the attack, were affected. Reduced refining volumes may free up additional oil for export, but this will take time. In addition, Russia is trying to increase domestic refining to meet domestic fuel demand.
Difficulties in tracking supplies
Tracking shipments from Russia’s Pacific ports is complicated by the growing number of “fake” ship location signals. This practice has already been recorded in the Baltic, the Black Sea, and near Murmansk. Bloomberg uses a combination of AIS data, reports from port agents and satellite imagery, but the growth of fake signals increases the risk of missing some tankers and requires adjustments to historical data.
Current volumes of fuels and lubricants
In the week ending August 10, 30 tankers left Russian ports, loaded with a total of 23.31 million barrels of crude oil. This is up from the previous week, when 22.72 million barrels were shipped by the same number of vessels.
The Russian oil market remains resilient to external factors, although the impact of duties and attacks on refineries may be felt in the coming months. Exporters remain cautious, but there are currently no signs of a rapid decline in supplies.
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