The Russian scenario in Moldova: do the results of the referendum and elections threaten the country’s European course?
21 October 2024 11:52
ANALYSIS
Moldova held the first round of presidential elections, but none of the candidates received more than 50% of the vote. According to preliminary estimates, the incumbent pro-European president, Maia Sandu, who received about 40% of the vote, and the opposition pro-Russian politician Alexandru Stoianoglo, who received about 30% of the vote, will go through to the second round. However, a referendum on accession to the European Union was held in parallel with the elections – Moldovan citizens were asked whether the country’s constitution should include a course towards the EU (as was done in Ukraine).
The results of the referendum were obviously unexpected for the authorities and for Maia Sandu, who actively promoted the idea of a plebiscite – after counting about 98% of the ballots, the results are balanced at 50-50 and it is still unknown where the scales will tip.
In addition, President Maia Sandu said that criminal groups, including those from abroad, had interfered in the elections, and that Moldova faced an unprecedented attack on its democracy during these elections and the referendum. For example, there are reports of vote buying.
“Criminal groups, in collaboration with external forces hostile to our national interests, have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies, propaganda, and the most shameful methods to drive our citizens and our nation into a trap of uncertainty and instability. We have clear evidence that criminal groups planned to buy 300,000 votes – a fraud of unprecedented scale,”
– said Maia Sandu.
Whatever the outcome of the second round of elections, it is already clear that the President of Moldova miscalculated at least in her confidence in the outcome of the referendum. Now, whatever the final results, their legitimacy will be very uncertain. What do the results of the Moldovan elections and referendum indicate, and will this have any consequences for Ukuraina? These questions "Komersant Ukrainian" asked domestic political experts.
Volodymyr Fesenko: “This is a blow to Sandu’s reputation”
Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko emphasises that the results of the referendum do not mean a complete collapse of Moldova’s European integration course. However, he believes that holding the referendum was a big political mistake by Maia Sandu, which could cost her dearly in the presidential election.
“This does not mean that Moldova’s European integration is stopped. But holding this referendum is a mistake. It was a political move that reminded me of the situation with the Brexit referendum, when Cameron thought he could easily win, but the opposite happened. In the case of Moldova, the consequences will not be so fatal, but it is already a serious blow to Sandu’s reputation,”
– explains the expert in an exclusive commentary .
Fesenko emphasises that the key risk for Sandu is not so much a loss in the referendum as the possibility of defeat in the presidential election.
“If Sandu loses the election, it could have a negative impact on the further development of Moldova’s European integration. If a pro-Russian politician comes to power, it will lead not so much to a direct revenge of pro-Russian forces as to political stagnation. The country may get stuck in a political struggle and stagnate, not moving forward,”
– he said.
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Fesenko also draws attention to the importance of economic and social policy in such processes. He compares the situation in Moldova to Ukraine before 2014, when political sympathies were almost evenly divided between pro-European and pro-Russian forces.
“In order to succeed in European integration, effective economic and social policies need to be implemented. Moldova resembles Ukraine before 2014, when pro-European forces did not have a significant advantage. And if their [pro-European] governments or the president do not pursue effective policies, this can lead to defeats. And Russia is definitely taking advantage of this,”
– Fesenko is sure.
The expert also notes that political corruption could have influenced the results of the referendum. According to him, the fugitive Moldovan politician Ilan Shor, who is accused of stealing a billion dollars in Moldova, organised bribery of voters through telegram channels to make them vote against joining the EU.
“Shor organised telegram channels through which he paid people to vote against it. This was not just Sandu’s mistake, but also political corruption,”
– Fesenko believes.
Eugen Magda: “Moldova’s society is split”
Political analyst Yevhen Magda reminds us that Russia’s interference in similar processes in the post-Soviet space is not new. Events such as elections or referendums in the former Soviet Union provoke a serious reaction from Russia, and usually pro-European forces and citizens do not like this reaction.
“This is a serious trigger for Russia. Such things in the post-Soviet space always arouse their interest. But Maia Sandu’s statements about interference, although understandable, will require concrete and large-scale evidence in the civilised world,”
– the expert emphasises.
Unlike Volodymyr Fesenko, Yevhen Magda believes that the results of the referendum, not the elections, will have more far-reaching consequences. After all, whatever the results, it is already clear that Moldovan society is split, and this is a very bad wake-up call for a country that is trying to break free from Russia’s grip.
“The amendment of the Constitution of Moldova to allow for EU integration was initiated by Sandu and her team as a driver for the presidential election. And now the question arises – what will she do with this when there is no triumph. Even if they win 51 to 49, it means a significant split in society and a forecast of problems in the parliamentary elections,”
– Magda notes.
As for Ukraine, the political scientist sees no immediate threat or similarities with the situation in Moldova. Ukraine’s aspiration to join the EU and NATO is already enshrined in the Constitution and in public discourse, and holding a referendum during the war is impossible.
At the same time, he believes that Ukraine should intensify contacts with Romania to jointly support Moldova’s European integration course.
“We need to talk to Romania about how to fight for the European integration of Ukraine and Moldova together. Because it is in our common interest,”
– Magda concludes.
Thus, it can be stated that Moldova is facing at least significant political problems, if not a crisis. It seems that Sandu’s victory will be quite certain, but the results of the referendum show that there is still no clear public consensus on the country’s pro-European direction.
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