The Kremlin’s intelligence game: why rumors about a Russian base in Indonesia are more than rumors
15 April 14:39
ANALYSIS
on April 14, the Janes website, which specializes in military topics, reported that Indonesia had received a request from Russia to deploy Russian military aircraft at a local base. Indonesia is allegedly actively considering this proposal.
The request was received by the office of Defense Minister Sjafri Syamsoeddin after his meeting with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu in February 2025, the publication claims.
According to the website, it is the easternmost province of Indonesia. In the request, Russia seeks to deploy several long-range aircraft at the Manuhua air base, which shares a runway with Frans Kaixiepo Airport. Janes claims to have documents confirming this information.
The airbase is located in Biak Numphor in the Indonesian province of Papua and is home to the 27th Air Squadron of the Indonesian Air Force, which operates a fleet of CN235 reconnaissance aircraft. It is also home to the recently established 9th Air Wing of the Indonesian Air Force, which has not yet been assigned aircraft types.
The request does not provide any information on the number of airframes or types of aircraft that the Russians want to deploy to Biak Numphor.
However, as Janes knows, over the past few years, the Russians have made several ad hoc requests to land their Tu-95 bombers and Il-76 transport aircraft at the same airbase. And some of these requests were granted by the Indonesian Air Force.
Australia’s response
Australia, which is located in close proximity to Indonesia, quickly reacted to this information. According to The Guardian, Australian officials contacted their Indonesian counterparts, but they assured them that the reports on the Janes website “are simply not true.”
Australian Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said he had spoken to his Indonesian counterpart about the reports.
“[He] told me in the clearest terms possible that the reports that Russian aircraft would be flying from Indonesia are simply not true,”
– Marles said.
In turn, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said:
“We clearly do not want to see Russian influence in our region. We have a position that we support Ukraine, we see Vladimir Putin as an authoritarian leader who has violated international law, who is attacking the sovereignty of the people of Ukraine.”
True or not, the information about a possible Russian presence in the Southeast Asian region has already stirred up a wide debate in Australia. [ Kommersant asked local experts how to assess these rumors and what they mean.
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Russia’s geopolitical positioning
Military expert Dmitry Snegirev believes that such steps are part of the Kremlin’s broader strategy.
“The Russians are playing to increase tension in the region. The point is that Russia sees the Pacific basin as a zone of its military and political interests,”
– Snegirev emphasized in an exclusive commentary
The expert explains that this decision can be interpreted as an attempt by Russia to counteract the influence of the United States and its allies in the region. According to him, this is primarily a counteraction to the United States and Japan in the context of confrontation with China and the DPRK.
“In this way, Russia is trying to position itself as a geopolitical player on the world stage,”
– the military expert emphasized.
Snegiryov added that although such statements do not necessarily indicate Russia’s real intentions or capabilities, they are elements of a geopolitical game aimed primarily at putting pressure on the United States, Australia and Japan.
Compensating for the loss of influence in other regions
According to the expert, the applications for the region are a kind of Moscow’s response to the reduction of its presence in the Mediterranean basin, in particular at the military base in Syrian Tartus, “where they were actually thrown out”, as well as to the reduction of Russian presence in the Red Sea, where Russia tried to influence the geopolitical situation through the Houthis.
After these defeats, the Russians are moving into areas where the so-called Five Eyes alliance is active.
“Five Eyes is an intelligence alliance that includes five English-speaking countries: The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Formed during the Second World War to share classified information between the Allies, the alliance has retained its relevance today. The Five Eyes members have a common system of intelligence collection, analysis and sharing, particularly in the areas of electronic surveillance, cybersecurity and counterterrorism, and are considered the closest intelligence community in the world.
“In this way, they are trying to give an asymmetric response to the narrowing of their own zone of military and political presence in other regions, and vice versa – the expansion of the American one, at the expense of Panama, respectively, and the escalation of relations with Iran and Yemen, Russian proxies,”
– Snegirev summarized.
An attempt to divert attention and a show of force
Political analyst Oleh Lisnyi, in turn, believes that such steps by Russia are aimed at dispersing the attention of the international community.
“In my opinion, such steps are intended to distract the situation in the world. This is a distraction from the main thing – for us and for Putin, by the way, too – the war in Ukraine,”
– said the political scientist exclusively for
Lesnyi suggests that this is Putin’s way of demonstrating his dissatisfaction with the US president’s policy. According to him, the Russian leader is “mocking Trump” because the American president does not accept his terms. At the same time, Russia is promoting its interests through various channels.
“And in this way, by deploying its troops somewhere else, it shows that Russia continues to be a player at the geopolitical level, can afford to move its planes somewhere, despite the situation with the war,”
– emphasized Lisnyi.
The expert also does not rule out that in this situation, there may be an attempt by the Russians to play along with China, which sees the United States becoming weaker.
“If I say not militarily, but politically, this is another sign that the United States is weakening. That is, Putin does not expect to have difficulties in this war. He is counting on deceiving Trump, and maybe he will be fine,”
– the political scientist summarized.
Therefore, a possible agreement between Russia and Indonesia on the basing of military aircraft can only be discussed at the level of rumors. However, experts point out that even the very idea of such a deployment and the very emergence of these rumors is part of the Kremlin’s geopolitical game. They see this step as an attempt to compensate for losses in other regions, and as a sign of information and political pressure on the United States and its allies.
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