US intelligence: Russian-Ukrainian war is at a standstill, sides are not capable of large-scale offensives
21 August 2024 11:34
A recent assessment by US intelligence suggests that Ukraine and Russia do not have the necessary military resources to conduct large-scale offensive operations. The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) made these conclusions in its latest report. This indicates a possible stalemate in the war, where neither side will be able to carry out significant offensive actions, reports "Komersant Ukrainian" reports with reference to Bloomberg.
According to the report, Ukraine does not have enough ammunition to match the firepower of Russia, which is capable of firing up to 10,000 artillery shells daily. Even after the additional military aid allocated by the US Congress in April, Ukrainian forces are only capable of defensive operations and not major counter-offensives for at least the next six months.
Russia, for its part, has chosen a strategy of depleting Ukrainian forces and will try to preserve the buffer zone captured by its troops. However, according to DIA analysts, Russia does not have enough forces to conduct a deep offensive into Ukraine, for example, in the direction of Kharkiv.
These estimates are contained in the quarterly report of the Pentagon’s Inspector General Robert Storch on US assistance to Ukraine. They also confirm earlier statements made by senior US officials, including former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, that the conflict is approaching a stalemate.
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The report covers the three-month period up to 30 June, after Congress passed a new $61 billion aid package for Ukraine. After that, Ukraine launched a surprise attack on Russia’s Kursk region and began using F-16 fighter jets provided by the allies.
In addition, the report highlights Ukraine’s successful use of the US tactical missile system ATACMS, which was previously used to strike Russian ammunition depots and helicopters within Ukraine. In particular, on 18 May, a Ukrainian ATACMS missile sank a Russian corvette in Sevastopol and destroyed several advanced Russian S-400 air defence systems in Crimea.
These strikes forced Russian forces to reinforce air defences in Crimea, using the most advanced systems, such as the S-500, to protect the Kerch Bridge. However, according to the DIA, the S-500 system has not yet demonstrated full operational readiness in Ukraine, which demonstrates Russia’s difficulties in ensuring an adequate level of air defence in Crimea.
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