Risks to defense: how the suspension of US military aid will affect Ukraine
4 March 14:32
The suspension of US military aid to Ukraine is a major concern, especially in the context of air defense and ammunition supplies to the frontline.
As a reminder, US President Donald Trump ordered the suspension of US military aid to Ukraine after his argument with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.
According to media reports, the supply of all US military equipment that is not currently in Ukraine will be suspended, including weapons in transit on planes and ships or waiting in transit zones in Poland.
Critical role of air defense
Military expert Serhiy Zgurets in a commentary
“In any case, we can say that the most critical consequences may be for air defense in the event of a prolonged failure to deliver missiles to the Petriots. These are the consequences that our cities in Ukraine will feel, but it will not affect the front line,” the expert said.
Situation at the front and the role of drones
The expert notes that the situation on the front line is significantly different from what it was in late 2023 and early 2024, when Ukrainian troops experienced a shortage of ammunition due to restrictions on the supply of American ammunition.
“The current situation is that from then until now, a significant number of targets on the battlefield have been destroyed primarily by drones for various purposes, which reach 60% of the targets marked,” Zgurets explained.
In his opinion, modern Ukrainian drones can partially compensate for the lack of artillery and missile strikes to a depth of 10-15 km, which is an important factor in deterring the enemy.
Impact on HIMARS and intelligence
The suspension of aid may also affect the effectiveness of HIMARS missile systems, as well as intelligence information that affects the strategic planning of strikes on Russian territory.
“American military assistance was multifaceted and, in principle, negative consequences, in addition to air defense, may affect the effectiveness of the use of HIMARS, there will be less ammunition, restrictions on certain intelligence information that may affect the effectiveness of planning our actions for certain strategic strikes deep into Russian territory,” Zgurets explained.
Despite all the risks, the expert does not consider the situation catastrophic.
“But in general, in any case, the situation will not be catastrophic, because the Ukrainian army, in my opinion, will adapt to changes in the supply of certain models, and this will affect the tactics of use, and the situation will not be catastrophic,” the military expert emphasized.
Ukraine’s critical dependence on American air defense
Instead, Ivan Kyrychevskyi, an expert at the Defense Express information and consulting agency, emphasizes that dependence on American systems is critical and determines the future of Ukraine’s entire defense strategy.
“We have been critically dependent on the Americans in terms of air defense. This is very critical. Because while European partners could still provide heavy weapons for ground combat, air defense aviation is the responsibility of the Americans,” the expert said.
Ukraine receives advanced systems from the United States, such as Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, which provide protection against Russian missile attacks and air strikes. At the same time, European partners focus on providing artillery, armored vehicles and other heavy weapons for ground operations.
Lack of air defense is a threat to Ukraine’s future
The expert also emphasizes that without an adequate level of air defense, Ukraine will not be able to wage an effective war and ensure the security of its cities and critical infrastructure.
“Well, and the second thing is that if we don’t have enough air defense equipment, then, you know, we can forget about any prospects,” Kyrychevsky summarized.
Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. This deadline has already passed.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The plan was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war, taking into account the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, included a provision that Russia would retain the territories it temporarily occupied and that Ukraine would not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. Trump’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak on his behalf.
Currently, the US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is talking about 100 days within which he wants to reach some kind of agreement. Of these, 43 days have already passed. During this time, the US Presidential Administration has established contact with the Kremlin, an American envoy has traveled to Moscow, and a meeting of the highest level negotiators has taken place in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine was not present at this meeting.
Meanwhile, in exchange for military support, US President Donald Trump demanded $500 billion worth of rare earth metals from Ukraine. He said that the US should have access to Ukraine’s natural resources, regardless of whether Kyiv manages to reach a peace agreement with Russia. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizes that in exchange for this agreement, the Ukrainian side is not given any security guarantees.
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Negotiations in Riyadh and Istanbul
on February 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Prime Minister’s aide Yuri Ushakov met in Saudi Arabia with an American delegation, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Volz, and Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
After the talks, the US State Department reported that the delegations agreed to “eliminate irritants” in bilateral relations and continue to work on preparing talks on Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The two sides also agreed to appoint high-level groups for further talks on Ukraine.
Jackie Heinrich, a Fox News correspondent at the White House, reported that the United States and Russia are discussing a three-stage peace plan for Ukraine, which consists of the following stages
- A ceasefire.
- Holding elections in Ukraine.
- Conclusion of a peace agreement.
on February 27, negotiations between the Americans and Russians continued in Istanbul. According to the Russian side, they discussed the normalization of diplomatic relations. The Kremlin also allegedly demanded the return of 6 properties that were seized from Russians in the United States during 2016-2018, and also proposed to resume air travel.
Trump’s proposals to Putin
According to inaccurate information from former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul(he used the word “allegedly”), Trump offered Putin (McFaul’s wording is retained)
- ukrainian territory;
- ukraine’s non-membership in NATO;
- no American soldiers in Ukraine;
- withdrawal of American soldiers from Europe, including from frontline countries;
- easing of sanctions.
Putin, according to McFaul, has not offered anything yet.
