Sanctions against Russian oil: the only scenario that can stop the war
7 August 12:55
Russian oil remains a key source of funding for the war against Ukraine, and sanctions aimed at limiting its exports are an important tool of pressure on the Russian economy. Statements by American politicians about the continuation of the sanctions policy and Donald Trump’s promises to impose new sanctions against countries that buy Russian oil draw attention to the question of what is the worst-case oil scenario that could critically weaken Russia.
European sanctions are more effective than American ones
In a commentary for
“Well, first of all, I would be extremely cautious now in making statements about the prospects for imposing any new sanctions by the United States, because we are now in a situation that is completely unclear in terms of whether Trump will fulfill his promise to impose sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil on August 8. Especially in terms of the statements that came after the Witkoff trip. So I would be cautious about this now.”
According to him, Europe is now demonstrating a more systematic and effective policy to limit Russia’s oil revenues.
“At the moment, what Europe is doing is much more effective than what the United States is doing. I would like to remind you that with the 18th package of sanctions, it was the Europeans who introduced a reduction in the price of Russian oil. It was the Europeans who restricted, or in fact banned, the supply of petroleum products made from Russian oil. And it is thanks to the Europeans that India is currently forced to look for other sources of oil supplies to its refineries,” the expert added.
He noted that the US duties or pressure on India do not have much effect, unlike the restrictions on the supply of oil products to Europe:
“The fact that Trump has imposed sanctions there, imposed 25 percent duties on Indian goods is useless, because India has a very small trade turnover with the United States. But the supply of diesel produced from Russian oil to the European market by Indian refineries is a fairly large volume.”
According to Penzin, these European measures are already having a tangible effect:
“Therefore, it is only thanks to Europe that India is now actively looking for new suppliers for its refineries. Therefore, I would perceive what the US Treasury Secretary says as more of a policy rather than the realities that exist at the moment.”
Full embargo as the only scenario
Energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko in a commentary
“The worst-case scenario can only be when the United States, together with NATO countries, impose a complete embargo on Russian oil supplies to the world market and introduce an oil-for-food program. As it was before, remember, in Iran. And this is the worst case scenario for them,” the expert said.
He emphasized that only decisive and large-scale actions can truly bleed the Russian military machine. However, according to him, this requires not only political determination, but also readiness for a serious confrontation:
“But to implement it, we need a strong enough will and not to be afraid to confront Russia. Is today’s America and NATO capable of this? This is a big question for me.”
Omelchenko emphasized that all other options will not work sufficiently to stop the war. The expert believes that the current sanctions have a limited impact:
“Neither the so-called sanctions on the shadow fleet will work, because it is not shadow, but everyone can see it. What kind of fleet is it when everyone knows about these ships? The Russians have learned how to circumvent these sanctions perfectly well through insurance companies and, in addition, through tankers flying the flag of other countries, through transformers, because Russian tankers do not have to call at European ports, because they can call at Turkish ports and African ports on their way. And India and China have not imposed any sanctions or ceilings. Therefore, there will be no problems for Russia here.”
The expert also questioned the effectiveness of the oil ceiling:
“It’s the same thing – the ceiling on oil prices also plays no role. Only a complete impargo with a program, for example, in exchange of oil for food, can really completely bleed the Russian budget in six months, they simply will not have money for the war.”
He added that economic pressure should be accompanied by military support for Ukraine:
“Of course, there should be more supplies of lethal weapons to Ukraine.”
Conclusion
Despite the statements of the US Treasury Department, experts point to the limited effectiveness of current sanctions and emphasize that only radical solutions, such as a complete embargo on Russian oil, can have a real impact on the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war. However, this requires the political will and unity of Western countries.
