Secret offer: experts explain what Trump is offering Putin and how the occupied territories of Ukraine will return
8 August 2025 18:45
Moscow has received an extremely lucrative offer from the team of US President Donald Trump, the Polish media outlet Onet reports, citing its own sources. The informal talks allegedly discussed a truce scenario without legal recognition of the occupied territories, but with the actual “freezing” of the conflict for decades. In return, the Kremlin would lift some of the sanctions, restore trade and gas agreements with the West.
Will the Kremlin accept such a proposal, and what does it mean for Ukraine? And why they started talking about “postponing the status of the occupied territories for 49 or 99 years” – in the article
During unofficial talks, US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff allegedly handed over to Russia a peace initiative agreed with some European capitals. According to the Polish media outlet Onet, the proposal provides for:
- a truce in Ukraine instead of a full-fledged peace,
- de facto recognition of the temporary occupation of Ukrainian territories – with the final decision postponed for 49 or 99 years,
- lifting a significant part of the sanctions imposed on Russia,
- resumption of energy cooperation, including imports of Russian gas and oil to Europe,
- no guarantees of NATO’s non-expansion, which is one of the Kremlin’s key demands,
- preservation of Western military support for Ukraine, which, according to sources, Russia may accept.
It is currently unknown whether the Kremlin will be ready to officially accept such an agreement. However, as Onet notes, if an agreement is reached, Trump would make significant concessions to Moscow, and Vladimir Putin could end the war without achieving his declared goals. For both sides, this could look like a forced compromise “in the face of the threat of a nuclear conflict between the United States and Russia.”
Russification, occupation, and a pause instead of peace: what lies behind Trump’s possible “deal” with Putin
We cannot confirm for sure whether the final version of the proposals will actually be like this. However, the handwriting of the US President can be traced here. Stanislav Zhelikhovsky, PhD in Political Science, international expert, said this in an exclusive commentary for Kommersant Ukrainian.
“I have seen publications in foreign media that talk about the possibility of establishing a truce for an indefinite period of time – 49 or even 99 years. This is similar to Donald Trump’s handwriting: concluding agreements with a fixed period of limitation. So, we can assume that such a proposal could indeed be voiced,” said Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
According to Zhelikhovsky, such an agreement could look attractive to Moscow, as it does not oblige it to give up the occupied Ukrainian territories, but actually puts the situation on hold, while opening the way to lifting sanctions and resuming trade. Whether Ukraine will agree to this is a question.
Even 49 years is a complete Russification of those territories. Look at Crimea: in just 10 years, a generation has grown up that does not remember Ukraine. And in half a century, the situation may become even worse. This is a very dangerous scenario, even regardless of the regime in Russia itself,” emphasizes Stanislav Zhelikhovsky.
No security guarantees for Ukraine: expert warns of risks
Another problem, according to Zhelikhovsky, is the absence of points on security guarantees for Ukraine in the proposed package.
There are no clear guarantees of Ukraine’s accession to the EU or NATO. There is also nothing about the future of the Ukrainian army. And we must remember: Russia wants Ukraine to be left with no real defense capability. They need “parade troops” that march on the parade ground but are not able to defend themselves,” Stanislav Zhelikhovsky said.
The expert also warns that Russia has repeatedly violated international agreements, so no “Trump deal” can guarantee a lasting peace. Russia signs agreements when it benefits from them. However, as soon as it restores economic ties with the West and can trade energy again, these profits will go to the military machine.
And who will stop it from attacking Ukraine again? Moreover, having the occupied territories, it will have a foothold,” Zhelikhovsky summarizes.
Talking not about peace, but about a ceasefire
While the Western media are spreading reports about an allegedly extremely lucrative offer for Moscow from Donald Trump’s team, military expert Dmitry Snegirev in an exclusive commentary for
“There is information that Moscow insists on a personal meeting with Trump, and, according to their own words, active contacts are underway to agree on a venue for the talks,” Snegiryov said.
According to Snegiryov, the very fact that such a meeting is being prepared may indicate that the agenda was previously agreed upon during the visit of Trump’s representative, Witkoff. And if the parties are indeed moving toward face-to-face talks, it means that Moscow sees the potential for a “compromise,” at least at the level of a truce.
Tough signals from the US
Despite this, Snegiryov emphasizes that the US position remains quite tough. Against the backdrop of the negotiations, sanctions pressure is increasing. In particular, a 25% duty was imposed on India, which effectively stopped the operation of the largest oil refinery, hitting not only New Delhi but also Russian oil exports.
In addition, Russia’s shadow fleet is preparing to work – it is not just about sanctions, but about canceling the permission to use flags. Key countries such as the Bahamas and Panama have already refused to cooperate with Russia. This means more than 250 ships out of about 500-600, which is at least a third of the fleet,” says Dmitry Snegirev.
“This causes enormous losses for the Russian budget, which depends on energy export revenues by more than 30%.
A peace agreement or just a pause in the war?
According to Snegiryov, there is no need to panic over a possible “deal.” Moreover, it is not a peace treaty, but a ceasefire. And it is not a legal recognition of the occupied territories.
Even the second paragraph does not mention de jure or de facto recognition of these lands by Russia. Moreover, Crimea is not bracketed out, as some have claimed. It is still considered a part of Ukraine, and this is, by and large, a victory for us,” emphasizes Snegiryov.
He also adds that even if Russia has enshrined the seized territories in its Constitution, this does not mean that they are internationally recognized.
“Putin is not immortal. The geopolitical situation may change. And the return of the occupied territories is quite possible in the future,” Snegiryov said
This means that even if the US does offer a truce format, it is not about Ukraine’s surrender or admission of defeat, but a strategic pause that could give Kyiv time to rearm and regroup.
It will be neither an analog of the Yalta agreements nor an act of surrender, as it was after World War II. Ukraine will not admit defeat, will not recognize the loss of territories – and this is fundamental,” summarizes Dmytro Snegiryov.
“Despite the alarming headlines and assumptions about a ‘good deal for Moscow,’ the reality for Ukraine does not look catastrophic at all. It is not a question of surrender or recognition of the loss of territories, but only a discussion of a possible truce without legal obligations – and even in this format, neither party fixes the status of the occupied lands. The United States is not abandoning its military support for Ukraine, and sanctions pressure on Russia is only increasing. All of this shows that even within the framework of hypothetical negotiations, Ukraine’s key national interests are preserved, and its favorable position in the international arena is not lost.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
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