What will happen if Trump wins: a blitz poll of Ukrainian politicians
28 June 2024 14:21
БЛІЦ
Ukraine today is critically dependent on the assistance of its partners, one of the most important of which is the United States. However, the messages coming from American officials lately, and the behaviour of the United States in general, make Ukrainians nervous. We are referring to messages such as The US is deliberately imposing lenient sanctions to keep petrol prices low or about the American vision of a “strategy for Ukraine’s success” that does not involve deep strikes against Russia.
At the same time, it is believed that things could get even worse if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. Komersant Ukrainskyi 
asked domestic politicians and political experts: what should we expect if Trump wins?
Fedir Venislavsky, MP
I think the situation when he was first elected is likely to repeat itself: the Russians rejoiced and drank shapanske for his victory, while Ukraine got Javelins and Stingers. I don’t expect any sharp fluctuations in aid to Ukraine after the US presidential election.
Oleksiy Honcharenko, MP
No one knows what will happen if Trump is elected. Perhaps even Trump himself does not know.
Georgii Mazurashu, MP
I cannot look into the future. But, as far as I understand from what I know from the past and present, Trump’s side stands for a quick end to the war in Ukraine (either by persuading the aggressor diplomatically or by providing prompt decisive assistance to Ukraine), and Biden’s side stands for a long-term military confrontation that should gradually weaken Russia and ultimately lead to the collapse of this evil empire. Losses, destruction, and other critical consequences for Ukraine, I think, are of little concern to the beneficiaries of this damn war.
Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, MP
Regardless of the choice of the Americans, the task of Ukrainian diplomacy will not change – to ensure that the United States continues to be the leader of the democratic world and supports us in the fight against Putin’s totalitarianism.
Volodymyr Ohryzko, former Foreign Minister
I think he’s going through an extremely difficult period now, when the American justice system has taken him seriously. We will find out whether he actually has the opportunity to run for office when the US Themis puts an end to it. And it is going to do so in the near future (on 11 July, the court is due to pass a verdict in the case where Trump was found guilty on 34 charges – ed.) So now speculating on this topic is like guessing on coffee grounds.
Andrii Deshchytsia, diplomat, former Ambassador of Ukraine to Poland
Firstly, if he wins, he will actually come to office in a year – at the end of January next year. It is impossible to predict what the world will look like in a year. But if he does win, we should accept it. It will be the choice of the Americans. We need to cooperate with the government and the president that the Americans have elected. And we will need to negotiate with him so that he supports Ukraine.
Oleksiy Arestovych, former advisor to the Presidential Office
He will break down globalist institutions: in the part that allows globalist democrats to remain in power, money and influence. The US status in NATO, for example, and the activities of numerous NGOs around the world are under threat.
Trump’s model: The US is the first among equals, not the hegemonic controller. He will try to give the world more freedom, but he wants to make it pay for it on its own. However, for this to happen, Trump must first win the US domestic war. Last time, his decision was blocked by a large bureaucracy. Now he is running for election with the slogan of its total cleansing.
As for Ukraine, I have generally optimistic expectations and do not believe in fairy tales about “…surrendering us to Russia”. Trump is not against Ukraine at all, he is against the left-liberal policies we pursue.
Taras Chornovil, political analyst
There will be nothing particularly terrible. Trump has already started to gradually drift, because there is a certain trend in support of Ukraine. Donald Trump is scarier and more dangerous before he is elected than after he is elected. Just remember what happened last time. I mean, Trump is bad, much worse than Biden. But they will very quickly start closing the champagne bottles in Russia.
Yevhen Magda, political analyst
If Trump is elected, the situation will be more difficult to predict, but there will be no tragedy. It seems to me that Trump himself does not know what he will do if he is elected president. There is no point in overreacting and dramatising.
Let’s understand that Trump is elected by US citizens, not Ukrainians, so our influence on this is negligible. We can only influence the overall climate of Ukrainian-American relations, and we have problems with that. So let’s work and cooperate effectively.
