What Orbán’s “peacekeeping tour” and his statements about the increase in the number of victims in Ukraine in the coming months could mean
10 July 2024 13:36
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
On 1 July, Hungary assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union, and immediately afterwards its leader, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, began his “peacekeeping tour” of the world. To date, he has already visited Ukraine, Russia and China, and then headed to the United States, where the 75th anniversary NATO summit will take place in Washington, DC, from 9 to 11 July. During his “tour”, Orban gave an interview to the German tabloid Bild, during which he stated that in the next 2-3 months there would be more victims of the war in Ukraine than in the last six months. Read "Komersant Ukrainian" article to find out what such statements by the Hungarian leader might mean in view of yesterday’s large-scale rocket attack on Ukraine.
The purpose of Orban’s “peacekeeping tour”
Orbán’s communication with Vladimir Zelensky, Putin, Xi Jinping and his trip to the United States is aimed at launching negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the terms of the aggressor country. This is the opinion of Valeriy Klochok, head of the Centre for Public Analysis “Vezha“.
“He is now (by his trip and his statements – ed.) putting pressure on the West, along with Putin and Xi Jinping, to agree to Russia’s terms. But I believe that China and Russia have differences. Including in the vision of the end of the war. And the attack on Ukraine on the day of my arrival in Beijing is a demonstration of this,”
– said Valeriy Klochok.
Orban is an amplifier of Putin’s signals
According to Valeriy Klochok, Head of the Centre for Public Analysis “Vezha“, by his statements about the increase in the number of victims, Viktor Orban is broadcasting Russian President Putin’s plans for Ukraine: he says that the latter is ready to do anything to end the war only on his own terms and may go to extreme measures.
“I believe that Putin has wanted negotiations for a long time: not for the first month and not for the first year. He wanted negotiations back in Istanbul. His conditions for ending the war have not changed today, and now Orban is sending a signal that Putin may go to extreme measures to achieve his goals, namely, to establish control over the temporarily occupied territories, all four regions and Crimea. Otherwise, according to Orban, in words that he allegedly heard directly from Putin himself, Ukraine will be very bad, Ukraine will suffer a lot if it does not listen to Putin. This is how I read Orban’s statement,”
– valeriy Klochok said.
Yesterday’s missile strike on Ukraine is a demonstration of Russian strength
According to Valeriy Klochok, yesterday’s missile strike on Ukraine is a demonstration of Russia’s power and a hint that Russia will stop at nothing to implement its plans.
“Putin is now mobilising his forces to demonstrate his power. And yesterday’s missile strike on Ukraine was aimed at this very purpose. Putin is demonstrating that he can go to any lengths to achieve his goal,”
– the expert said.
He stressed that Putin is already beginning to hint directly at the possible targeted use of nuclear weapons by Russia.
“Recently, he spoke about the use of nuclear weapons, as if he was aware of information that the West was developing new rules for the use of ultra-low-yield nuclear weapons for localised strikes. In other words, Putin hinted that everyone is already accepting these rules and that Russia will use nuclear weapons. Moreover, he cited the example of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, where their tactical-range nuclear warheads are more powerful than those used by Japan during the Second World War,”
– valeriy Klochok said.
Despite the fact that Orban called the shelling of Ukraine on 8 March a “tragic and vile attack”, he did not condemn Russia. Instead, he said that the missile attack was evidence that his “fears were justified”.
“As expected, the brutality of the Russian-Ukrainian war has reached a new level. That is why we launched a peacekeeping mission nine days ago,”
– he said.
Whether the shelling of Ukraine on 8 July, including the missile attack on the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital, is really related to Orban’s so-called “peacekeeping tour” will probably become known only later.
For now, the Hungarian leader is still in Washington and continues to call for a ceasefire and peace talks.
orban’s “secret letter”
As it became known to the Sistema investigative project of the Current Time, after his visits to Kyiv and Moscow, on 5 July, Viktor Orban allegedly sent a letter to European Council President Charles Michel and the heads of EU countries, in which he recounted the essence of his negotiations with the aggressor country.
The journalists received a letter from a European official. According to Sistema, the authenticity of this message was confirmed by two other EU officials.
The essence of Orban’s message is that during the talks with the Hungarian leader, Putin was allegedly surprised that the President of Ukraine rejected his proposal for a temporary ceasefire. He also emphasised the losses suffered by the Ukrainian army, exaggerating them many times over.
According to journalists’ reports, during Orban’s visit, Putin constantly emphasised the Istanbul Agreements of 2022, which he still considers relevant.
In addition, in his letter, Viktor Orban allegedly stated that during his visits to Kyiv and Moscow, he did not speak on behalf of the entire European Union, but only learned about the positions of the two warring countries. He also believes that Europe should take an “autonomous initiative” in achieving peace, as America is currently busy with its election campaign and cannot show leadership in the peacekeeping issue.
Author – Alyona Kaplina
