What is known about three key points from the US: how experts assess the peace plan
24 November 2025 14:45
ANALYSIS 
The United States has presented Ukraine with a draft of new security guarantees that could form the basis of a future agreement on long-term support. The document envisages a military rather than a political model for responding to possible repeated Russian aggression, as well as the involvement of key European allies. In the article
Three key provisions of the US document
The United States has officially offered Ukraine a new document on security guarantees, which is fundamentally different from the political promises of the past. Unlike the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the new plan provides for military rather than declarative commitments.
The three key points of the document with security guarantees for Ukraine offered by the United States:
- In the event of a repeat Russian offensive, the US president would have the right to use US troops and intelligence.
- NATO, along with France, Britain, Germany, Poland, and Finland, pledge to act in sync with the United States;
- The guarantees will be valid for 10 years.
Why it is not another “piece of paper” like the Budapest Memorandum
Military expert Dmytro Snegirev in a commentary
“Of course, such proposals are acceptable. It is not about political guarantees, but about military ones. Moreover, the main emphasis is on the direct use of both American and European troops,” emphasizes Snegiryov.
According to him, the United States is demonstrating to European countries that they will not be able to hide from responsibility.
“They are making it clear that if you criticize the plan, please bear personal responsibility for security guarantees. Not only the United States,” the expert said.
Snegiryov also emphasizes that the guarantees for the first time provide for the actual use of the armies and intelligence of the partners.
“Therefore, this is absolutely 100% in the interests of Ukraine, because it gives clear military guarantees, not a political commitment, as it was at the time of the Budapest Memorandums. It clearly states the use of armies and intelligence community, both of the United States and, accordingly, of European partners,” he adds.
Separately, the expert draws attention to the possibility of transferring Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine:
“In addition, the possibility of transferring Tomahawks to Ukraine is being considered as a guarantee, and this will significantly strengthen the subjectivity of the Ukrainian side after the negotiation process and at the time of the possible signing of peace agreements. This is absolutely 100% in the interests of Ukraine.”
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Analogous to NATO’s Article 5, but with nuances
Political analyst Oleg Lisnyi in a commentary
“In my opinion, this is not new. This is actually an analog of NATO’s Article Five,” he said.
However, he emphasizes that without clear mechanisms, such a model may be weaker than the NATO model. According to him, it is important that the final text is as clear as possible and leaves no room for different interpretations, as is often the case with the current NATO Article 5.
“It is important that these guarantees contain more specifics. That is, they should be spelled out much better than NATO Article 5. Because it is very vague and is interpreted in different ways,” explains Lisnyi.
The main question is why only 10 years
The validity period was the only point that caused comments from experts. 10 years is longer than any previous guarantees, but still a limited period. After 2035 (or another date of signing), Ukraine will either have to extend the agreement or look for new security mechanisms, such as full membership in NATO.
“The only thing that triggers me is that the term is only for 10 years. Because conditionally, Article 5 is indefinite. When a threat arises, it is activated for the period when this threat exists.
Therefore, the only thing that is currently available to the small amount of information that is available is the validity period,” the political scientist summarized.
What it means for Ukraine
The United States is actually offering a de facto collective defense system, but without formally joining NATO.
European countries are obliged to act together with the United States, which strengthens the defense contour around Ukraine.
The possible transfer of precision weapons, including Tomahawk, strengthens Ukraine’s bargaining position.
The document is limited to a ten-year term.
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