What does the death of the Iranian president change for Ukraine: analysts’ opinions
20 May 2024 15:33
EXCLUSIVE
Thedeath of Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in a plane crash does not change either the internal Iranian situation or Iran’s policy towards Ukraine. This is the opinion of political experts interviewed by Kommersant Ukrainian 
.
For example, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko notes that Iran’s policy towards Russia is decisive, while Iran’s policy towards Ukraine is virtually non-existent. And the deceased Iranian president did not take much part in shaping this policy.
“This policy is determined not by the President of Iran, but by the collective Iranian theocratic regime, in which Ayatollah Khamenei, the religious leadership of Iran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps play a key role. They determine Iran’s foreign policy,”
– says Fesenko.
According to him, although the President of Iran is part of this collective leadership and the formal No. 2 figure in the country’s leadership, Ibrahim Raisi himself was not a charismatic figure and did not have enough power.
“Now some commentators believe that the death of the foreign minister may be even more significant in terms of consequences than the death of the president of Iran. So there will be no changes in the attitude towards Ukraine and in the relations between Iran and Ukraine as a result of this event,”
– said Volodymyr Fesenko.
Political analyst Taras Chornovil agrees with him, saying that Iran has a clear power system similar to Russia’s. And the links between the Iranian system and the Russian one do not end there.
“The main functions of the country’s political leadership are performed by the Ayatollah, and he is probably the first Shiite leader who is, or at least was at one time, an agent of the Russian special services. Shiites did not like the Soviet Union and do not like Russians. They were more tolerant, not like the Americans, but they did not like them. The main Iranian theologians are incredibly outraged that Iran is actively supporting Russia. I mean theologians. But there is an Ayatollah who is pro-Russian,”
– chornovil said.
Therefore, the death of the president does not change anything – Ayatollah Khamenei will continue to lead the country as before, despite some destabilisation as a result of Raisi’s death.
“The opposition’s attempts to shake up the country have intensified, with fireworks going off all over Iran in connection with the death of the hated president. But it doesn’t change much, because the opposition is mostly anti-clerical. Now the Ayatollah will simply have more control over the government and the presidential vertical. There will be no changes,”
– believes Taras Chornovil.
On 19 May, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi died in a helicopter cr ash on the border with Azerbaijan. Along with him, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, Governor of Iran’s East Azerbaijan Province Malek Rahmati, representative of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution in the East Azerbaijan Province Ayatollah Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem and several other unnamed individuals were killed.
