How much will the post-war restoration of Ukrainian agricultural land cost? Experts have calculated
2 April 11:56
At least $20 billion will be required for the post-war restoration of agricultural land in Ukraine, and it will take more than 10 years. This was stated by Oleh Nivievsky, head of the Center for Food and Land Use Research at the Kyiv School of Economics, citing a recent study by Wageningen University & Research, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to him, in Ukraine, which owns a third of the world’s black soil, the war is literally tearing up this soil. And after the war, hundreds of thousands of hectares will have to be surveyed and demined, as well as huge areas of land restored.
What are the main factors of soil damage?
First, according to Oleh Nivievsky, we are talking about “explosive” soil destruction, when explosions mix soil layers. The top half meter of soil is the most fertile and it is this layer that suffers the most from explosions. The mixing of layers destroys microflora, changes the structure and reduces fertility.
To add to this:
– Soil compaction by heavy military equipment.
– Chemical contamination with heavy metals (cadmium, copper, zinc) and fuel residues.
– Destruction of forest belts – natural protection against erosion and wind.
“In the Kharkiv region, one of the most fertile regions of the country, more than 160 thousand hectares of damaged land and 420 thousand shell craters have been recorded. And this is only one of the ten regions that have been severely affected,” emphasizes Oleh Nivievskyi.
How much can land restoration cost?
Wageningen University estimates that the cost of restoring agricultural land will be at least $20 billion, which is about 15% of pre-war GDP. According to Oleh Nivievsky, as far as we can tell, this estimate includes the cost of demining and reclamation, i.e., the actual restoration of the soil and its return to production.
The World Bank estimates the priority needs for reclamation at $1.1 billion, and the cost of demining all the land, according to the World Bank, will cost $30 billion, of which about $22 billion will be required to demine agricultural land. And it will take at least 10 years.
At the same time, it should be realized that not all land will return to agricultural production. Some fields may not be able to be cleared of mines, and some of the land will have to be turned into nature conservation areas, for example.
In this regard, Oleh Nivievsky, head of the Center for Food and Land Use Research at the Kyiv School of Economics, recalls the experience of Belgium, which shows that even after 100 years, farmers find shells from the First World War.
How much territory in Ukraine needs to be cleaned up?
As of the beginning of 2024, 156,000 square kilometers of Ukraine’s territory were potentially contaminated with explosive ordnance due to Russian aggression. As reported in January this year by the Ministry of Defense, thanks to the joint work of mine action operators and demining units of the Security and Defense Forces, in 2024 the mined area decreased by 17,000 square kilometers and now amounts to 139,000 square kilometers.
“Non-technical surveys were conducted in 165 territorial communities – almost three times more than planned. We also identified more than 300 square kilometers of allegedly or actually contaminated areas that require further humanitarian demining,” said Colonel Ruslan Berehulyaga, head of the Main Directorate of Mine Action, Civil Protection and Environmental Safety of the Ministry of Defense.
Last year, the demining units of the Security and Defense Forces discovered and destroyed 227,502 explosive devices, while mine action operators found and destroyed 10,923.
