Warehouses are empty: ISW counted Russian armoured vehicles
9 May 2024 11:41
Recent satellite images of depleted Russian weapons and armour depots further indicate that Russia is currently sustaining its military efforts mainly by removing weapons from storage rather than producing new equipment. This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
Thus, satellite images show that the stocks of armoured vehicles in Russia have decreased by almost 32% compared to pre-war levels: from 15,152 in 2021 to 10,389 as of May 2024.
For some types of equipment:
- mT-LB armoured personnel carriers – 922 units remained out of 2,527 at the beginning of the full-scale war;
- tracked amphibious assault vehicles (BMD) – 244 out of 637 units left;
- bTR-50 armoured personnel carriers – 52 out of 125;
- APCS-60, APCS-70, APCS-80 – 2605 units out of 3311 (probably referring to vehicles currently in service)
“A military stockpile tracker has shown that Russia is currently deploying the remaining 1000-2000 MT-LBs in Ukraine. …Russia has moved approximately 60% of its artillery systems to an unspecified towed artillery storage base. The source said that about half of the artillery systems remaining at this base are likely to be unusable due to degradation during storage, as well as the fact that many of them are World War II artillery systems that are incompatible with modern ammunition,”
– the report says.
The analysts add that Russia currently relies on huge stocks of Soviet-era vehicles and other equipment, as the Russian military-industrial complex is unable to provide the necessary supplies. Russia will also not be able to mobilise its military-industrial complex to replenish these stocks for many years, according to ISW. However, the stockpile is sufficient for two to three years of warfare.
“The UK’s International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank has reported that Russia is likely to be able to maintain the current level of equipment losses (over 3,000 armoured combat vehicles annually) for at least two to three years, mainly by returning equipment from storage,”
– experts say.
The IISS also estimates that Russia lost more than 3,000 armoured combat vehicles in 2023 and about 8,000 armoured combat vehicles since February 2022, and that Russia has likely recovered at least 1,180 main battle tanks and about 2,470 infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers removed from storage in 2023.
On 4 February, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that the Russian military-industrial complex can produce 250-300 new and upgraded tanks per year and repair an additional 250-300 tanks per year.
This means that Russia is likely to have difficulty supplying units with equipment in the long term without putting the Russian economy on a war footing, a step Putin has so far tried to avoid.
