The US is increasing economic pressure: tariffs against India as a warning to Russia and China
31 July 2025 20:30
ANALYSIS FROM 
US President Donald Trump has announced the introduction of a 25 percent duty on imports of Indian goods, which will come into effect on August 1. He made the announcement on his Truth Social platform.
Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the high duties that India imposes on American goods and criticized its close cooperation with Russia. In particular, he emphasized that India continues to actively purchase Russian military equipment and energy carriers – despite the war in Ukraine and the international community’s desire to stop Russian aggression.
India has been buying most of its weapons from Russia for many years and is now one of the main importers of Russian energy resources along with China. As the world tries to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine, this policy is unacceptable. Therefore, starting August 1, India will pay a 25% tariff plus an additional penalty for its behavior,” Trump explained.
Trump also emphasized that India applies some of the highest protective duties in the world. And this is true: back in 2019, New Delhi imposed increased tariffs on 28 types of American products, some of which were subject to duties of up to 70%. Nevertheless, since April 2025, when the Trump administration announced a course for a large-scale trade confrontation, the United States and India have been actively negotiating a bilateral agreement that would reduce the trade imbalance in Washington’s favor.
According to media reports, India was ready to partially reduce or even eliminate duties on American goods worth more than $23 billion. The parties set August 1 as the deadline for reaching an agreement. Trump set this date as a deadline for all countries with which he planned to agree on new trade terms.
Earlier, Trump had declared an ambitious goal: to conclude 90 trade agreements in 90 days. This deadline expired in early July. To date, the US has already agreed on framework agreements with the UK, the European Union, China, South Korea, and Vietnam. Obviously, no compromise has been found with India. At least not yet.
That is why Trump announced the introduction of 25% duties on all Indian exports to the United States. In addition, his statement directly criticized New Delhi for purchasing Russian weapons and energy resources: the US president threatened India not only with tariffs but also with a “fine” for cooperating with Russia.
Can this be considered the beginning of a targeted campaign to punish the Kremlin and its partners? If so, the question arises: who will be next in line after India?
Western Trade Bloc: A New Architecture of Confrontation
This is part of a broader geopolitical game in which there are increasing signals of preparations for a global conflict with China. In a conversation with journalists
“There is a broader context. The US and the EU have agreed to create a western trade loop – in fact, a free trade zone. Europeans are gradually abandoning Russian oil, and China is being pushed out of the supply chain. Even small logistics hubs are being closed to prevent re-export of Chinese goods,” the expert says.
According to Zahorodnyi, the United States has long viewed Russia and China as a single geopolitical bloc. That is why Washington seeks to prevent China’s access to alternative energy sources, particularly those that do not pass through American control.
Particular attention is paid to India, which since the beginning of the full-scale war has become one of the key buyers of Russian oil, replacing supplies from the Persian Gulf.
“India is in no hurry to give up Russian oil,” Zagorodniy notes, “The United States is exerting comprehensive pressure: economic pressure through duties, political pressure through ultimatums. It’s a matter of choice: either you become part of the Western bloc or you remain in the zone of influence of Russia and China. And this is directly related to the upcoming war against China, for which the United States is actively preparing, increasing its defense budget and rebuilding its army.
Zagorodniy also emphasizes that the ultimate goal of the United States is to make sure that Russia is forced to mothball its oil wells:
“If the Russians start shutting down their wells, they won’t start them up again. This is technically almost impossible. And even more so under sanctions,” the expert concludes.
India’s economy will hardly suffer
Economist Oleg Pendzin in a commentary for
“There is very little trade between the US and India. It doesn’t hurt economically. A much more serious blow is the 18th package of sanctions that will come into effect in January 2026. It provides for a ban on imports of petroleum products made from Russian oil,” the expert says.
This, according to Penzin, is already forcing India to look for alternative sources of fuel, as the share of Russian oil in its imports is currently 21%.
India has already announced that it has begun an active search for alternatives in the Persian Gulf and other regions. This is a consequence of the 18th package of sanctions, not Trump’s tariffs,” he adds.
Is China next?
Analysts suggest that the US may increase pressure on China as well. Although Beijing is currently publicly defending its “sovereign right” to buy Russian oil, it could become the next field of conflict.
China has already stated that it will not succumb to pressure, but we will see how sustainable these statements are. After all, China is the main market for Russian energy resources today,” says Pengjin.
Both experts agree that the US pressure on India and potentially China is part of a broader strategy to isolate Russia, including through the energy front. And this gives Ukraine a chance to increase internal and external pressure on the aggressor.
Then everything depends on us – on strikes on refineries, railways, and critical infrastructure in Russia. The duration of the war is determined by Ukraine. It is a matter of mobilization and determination,” summarizes Taras Zahorodniy.
“So, Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25% duty on imports from India has a much deeper meaning than it seems at first glance. This is not only a response to New Delhi’s trade restrictions against the United States, but a clear political signal: any state that supports or trades with Russia during its war against Ukraine risks being subjected to American economic sanctions. India, which maintains close energy and military-industrial ties with the Kremlin, has been targeted because of this cooperation. Thus, the United States is beginning to form a new global doctrine – “either you are with us or against us” – in which the economy becomes a continuation of foreign policy.
Author – Daryna Glushchenko
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