US concerned about Ukraine’s strikes on Russian nuclear radars
30 May 2024 11:27
The US has expressed concern over recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian nuclear early warning systems. Washington believes that such attacks could destabilise the situation at a time when the Biden administration is considering lifting restrictions on the use of US weapons to strike Russia. This was reported by The Washington Post, according to "Komersant Ukrainian"
“The United States is concerned about Ukraine’s recent strikes on Russian ballistic missile early warning radars,”
– a US official said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Washington has conveyed its concerns to Kyiv over two attempted attacks last week on radar stations that provide air defence and warn of nuclear missile launches by the West. At least one strike in Armavir in the Krasnodar Territory appears to have caused some damage.
The US official noted that these sites were not involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but are sensitive locations because Russia may believe its strategic nuclear forces are being targeted, which could undermine Moscow’s ability to provide a nuclear deterrent to the US.
However, a Ukrainian official with knowledge of the situation said that Russia has used these radars to track Ukrainian military activities, including the use of drones and missiles. The official confirmed that the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry (GUR) was behind the strikes.
According to the Ukrainian official, the aim of the strikes was to weaken Russia’s ability to track the Ukrainian army in the south. The drone that attacked the radar near Orsk travelled more than 1,800 km, one of the deepest attempts to strike Russian territory.
US officials recognise Ukraine’s predicament and are considering lifting restrictions on strikes inside Russia. But if Ukrainian attacks were to disrupt Russian early warning systems, it could undermine strategic stability between Washington and Moscow, they say.
“Russia could decide that it has lost the ability to detect nuclear activity against itself, and that would be a problem,”
– the US official warned.
Analysts believe that such concerns stem from the “false belief that Ukraine’s strikes are directed by Washington”.
“But Kyiv’s attacks on Russia’s nuclear infrastructure could lead to a dangerous escalation with the West. Nuclear control and warning centres should be inviolable,”
– said Dmitriy Alperovich, security analyst and head of the Silverado think tank.
A number of experts are surprised by the targets chosen: while Krasnodar is close enough to Ukraine to track missiles and drones, the radar near Orsk is focused on the Middle East and China. In response, a Ukrainian official claims that Russia has “redirected all its capabilities to the war against Ukraine”.
About three weeks ago, shortly after the Russian offensive on Kharkiv, Ukraine asked the US to ease restrictions on strikes with US-supplied weapons. Some senior officials, including Secretary of State Blinken, are in favour of such a move and have called on President Biden to lift the restrictions. The White House is currently considering this proposal, but no action has been taken.
Reflecting on the situation with the Ukrainian strikes, Blinken said that the US “has not encouraged or authorised strikes outside of Ukraine, but Ukraine must make its own decisions about the best way to defend itself”. He added that the United States “adapts and responds” to changes on the battlefield, and as Russia moves to new tactics of “aggression and escalation,” it is confident in its ability to continue to do so.
According to U.S. officials, there is no prohibition on Ukraine’s use of U.S.-supplied missile defence systems to shoot down Russian missiles or aircraft over Russian territory in the event of a threat to Ukraine. However, the US has occasionally expressed concern about strikes against Russia, sometimes even intervening at the planning stage.
