The real reasons for the rapid growth of the dollar have become known
27 May 2024 12:46
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
The dollar is rising rapidly in Ukraine. On the interbank foreign exchange market, the dollar is sold for 39.9 hryvnias, but the cash rate is already close to 40.5 hryvnias. [ Kommersant investigated the reasons for the rise in the US currency.
In a commentary to Kommersant Ukrainian 
,economic expert Oleg Pendzin said that the rapid rise in price is due to the budget deficit.
“Let me explain – there is no currency market in Ukraine. What is a market? It’s when you have demand and supply, and the exchange rate is formed as a result of the ratio of supply and demand. This is the market. Tell me, please, who is currently selling foreign currency in our country? Only the NBU. If you have one seller who also determines the rules of the game for all market participants, then what kind of market can we talk about today? Whatever exchange rate the NBU sets, that’s the rate at which the transaction is conducted. In other words, there is no foreign exchange market in Ukraine in the literal sense of the word,”
– he said.
Pendzin noted that when it comes to explaining why the NBU is currently lowering the hryvnia exchange rate, it should be remembered that the main source of social welfare payments is currently macro-financial assistance from our partners.
“Macro-financial assistance comes in foreign currency. Tell me, just for the sake of argument, what is the interest of the Ministry of Finance? The interest is to get more hryvnia for its dollar, and how can it do this? Only by agreeing with the NBU to lower the hryvnia exchange rate, especially since the budget for 24 sets the average annual exchange rate at 40.6, the average annual rate. Therefore, based on these considerations, it is clear, and we know that the NBU constantly repeats about the huge deficit, the 300-400 billion deficit in the state budget. I do not mean the direct deficit – the one according to the official budget figures – but the deficit of what should have been in relation to what is available,”
– the expert explained.
According to him, the NBU is currently lowering the hryvnia exchange rate to make it more profitable for the Ministry of Finance to sell its macro-financial assistance for social payments.
“Moreover, we see that inflation is quite low and the NBU has the opportunity to raise inflation a little today… Our inflation rate is 3.2, which is less than in the US, where it is 3.5. Therefore, when we talk about the prospects, I think we will continue to see a slight depreciation of the hryvnia to around the level of the current state budget, which is 40.6. That is, I think that in June we will see a slight depreciation of the hryvnia, too. we will definitely see 40.5 in the summer. I’m talking about the official rate now,”
– Pendzin summed up.
It is worth noting that the Verkhovna Rada adopted the state budget for 2024 with a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6% of the forecast GDP.
International aid will remain a significant source of its coverage, which will amount to USD 37.9 billion this year. THE US WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF INTERNATIONAL AID, WHICH WILL AMOUNT TO USD 37.9 BILLION THIS YEAR.
Ukraine receives significant financial support from international partners, including the United States, the European Union, and other countries. These funds are received in foreign currency, and the government has to convert them into hryvnia to finance various social programmes, pensions, wages, medical and educational needs.
Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said that the allocation of US budgetary aid theoretically covered Ukraine’s social and humanitarian expenditures in 2024.
