Light only for 2-3 hours a day: expert names prerequisites for such a scenario in winter
2 July 2024 17:06
ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ
Due to massive Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, the winter of 2024-2025 will be difficult for Ukrainians. Several scenarios for the upcoming heating season are already being considered, but the constant shelling by the Russians and the unpredictability of their actions make it impossible to settle on any of them.
The first, pessimistic scenario predicts that Russian shelling of critical infrastructure may continue, so a number of energy facilities may be out of commission and the situation with electricity and heat generation will be extremely difficult.
Under the second, baseline or optimistic scenario, there will be few or no attacks, and more energy facilities will be restored. In this case, blackouts may become slightly less frequent.
One thing is clear: it will be difficult in winter, as people in some regions already have to live without electricity for 10-12 hours a day.
What schedules will be introduced this winter? [Kommersant] talked to Yuriy Korolchuk, an expert at the Institute for Energy Strategies.
What is your forecast for electricity supply? How long will we have to stay without electricity?
At best, there will be no electricity for 12 hours a day. This is the best case scenario. I’m afraid it will be even worse: there will be electricity for 6 hours a day during the peak periods of winter, and on average – 12 hours a day.
There may be light for 2-3 hours a day. This is true. In addition to repairs and possible Russian shelling, there is always the weather factor. This must also be taken into account.
Can we say that July is a rehearsal for the winter situation with electricity in Ukraine?
Now we are seeing a projection of the winter situation, but in winter, electricity consumption will increase. Even if partial repairs are made, the situation will be worse. The problematic regions are now suffering the most: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro and Lviv regions.
In winter, everyone will face problems – not only the critical regions, but also, relatively speaking, Zakarpattia, Ternopil, Kirovograd and other regions.
How can financial assistance from other countries improve the situation with electricity?
As far as I know, other countries and organisations provide assistance to Ukraine on a spot basis and with small amounts of money. Literally millions of dollars are spent on generators, assistance to regions and local governments. There is a separate area of assistance when generators are purchased for the army.
As for the reconstruction and repair of thermal power plants and substations, we use internal resources and do not receive any money for this.
The aid we hear about is the so-called ‘humanitarian aid’, which is for hospitals and schools, for example. Again, it is the purchase of generators or cogeneration units.
What is the extent of the destruction of the Ukrainian energy sector, according to your estimates?
About 6,000 MW of capacity has been destroyed. When the government says
that 9,000 MW of capacity was destroyed, they mean the installed capacity.
It was planned to restore about 3,000 MW by winter. Now the figure has dropped to 2,000 MW.
For me, this is a pessimistic forecast, because 2,000 MW is not enough. We consume an average of about 15-16,000 MW in winter. So we have 1,000 MW left as of now. Yes, something will be rebuilt, but if it is 2,000 MW, then we will have 12,000 MW in winter. And it turns out that we have a deficit of 3,000 MW.
But in fact, this is not the case. Because we still have a problem with 2022-2023: there is also a deficit of about 1.5-2,000 MW. This deficit is caused by Ukrenergo, because their substations have not been repaired either.
And in winter, the problem will be not only in the destroyed thermal power plants, CHPs and hydroelectric power plants, but also in the substations: in winter, the deficit will be about 5,000 MW, out of the 15 MW we need.
When can Ukraine fully return to the times without a critical shortage of electricity in the system?
Only after the war. I agree with the IMF’s forecast that in 2026 we can talk about a conditional recovery of the electricity situation in Ukraine. But we don’t know what will happen to nuclear generation and whether thermal units will be repaired. This and next winter will be difficult in any case, even without missile attacks. The key question is whether it will be possible to start full-scale repairs in 2025 and complete them in 2026, and when the hostilities will end.
Author – Alyona Kaplina
