Global coffee, tea and cocoa market: what is happening to prices and what to expect next
6 September 07:53
Prices for basic beverages and raw materials for chocolate continue to rise, but the dynamics in each market has its own reasons and peculiarities. Bohdan Dukhnytskyi, a leading researcher at the Department of Agricultural Market and International Integration of the National Research Center “Institute of Agrarian Economics”, Doctor of Economics, told this in a commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian".
Although prices for all three products in the focus are rising, they have their own dynamics for each segment and are caused by different market factors.
Tea: heat and floods have reduced production in India
“The increase in the cost of tea started last summer due to excessive heat and floods in India. This resulted in a 30% decrease in production in that country, with a 20% increase in prices. This trend continues to this day,” the expert explained.
Cocoa: speculation and shortage of raw materials keep prices up
The global cocoa market has remained tense for more than two years. According to Dukhnytsky, the price fluctuates even in the short term:
“At the beginning of June 2025, a ton of cocoa beans cost more than $9,000. In mid-July, the price dropped below 7000 USD/t, and in August, the price dropped below 7000 USD/t. USD/t, and in August it rose again to 8163 USD/t. USD/t. As of the beginning of September 2025, cocoa beans are in the range of 7200 USD/t. USD/t amid expectations of a better harvest in the 2025/26 season and a slight decline in global demand.”
Read also: World coffee prices are entering a series of growth, which has not been seen since 1980
At the same time, the market for finished chocolate continues to be pressured by the limited ability of Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana to resume production, logistical problems and speculative trade.
“Therefore, prices for chocolate and chocolate products on the international market will remain high,” the scientist emphasized.
Coffee: weather in Brazil will determine the market in 2025-2026
The situation with coffee is different.
“Since the beginning of 2025, the rise in the cost of coffee beans has been driven by prolonged weather problems in Vietnam and Brazil at the end of last summer, which worsened actual production. In addition, expectations on the global market suggest that demand will continue to exceed supply,” said Dukhnytsky.
According to the World Coffee Organization (ICO), in the first quarter of 2025, the price rose sharply to almost USD 3.80/lb. USD/lb, and then gradually decreased: in May – 3.34 USD/lb, in July – 2.59 USD/lb.
“But another intervention of unpredictable weather conditions – frosts in Brazil – changed the price situation. In August, the price of coffee increased to USD 2.97/lb. USD/lb (15%). The negative effects of cold temperatures in Brazil will not only lead to a decline in the coffee harvest in 2025, but also to a deterioration in the condition of coffee trees, which will be felt in 2026,” the expert explained.
What’s next?
Bohdan Dukhnytskyi emphasized that the main factor in further price formation will be the balance between supply and demand.
“Since Brazilian producers still do not come up with significant volumes of coffee beans for sale, there is every reason to expect the price of this product to continue to rise globally,” he concluded.
Global outlook for coffee and cocoa: what the world can expect
Both coffee and cocoa remain at risk due to climate change, geopolitics, and logistical imbalances. Analysts predict that the coffee market may enter a stabilization phase in the last quarter of 2025, if there are no new climate disasters.
Watch us on YouTube: important topics – uncensored
Meanwhile, the situation on the cocoa market remains tense: even with the recovery of harvests, the shortage has not yet been overcome, and high prices will remain at least until mid-2026.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in a nutshell
