Tariffs after the war: when should Ukrainians expect gas prices to be revised and who will cover the difference
3 December 2025 17:55
Ukraine may reconsider the cost of gas for the population after the end of hostilities – that’s when, according to the government’s preliminary plans, tariffs should rise. Oleg Popenko, an expert on housing and utilities and founder of the Union of Consumers of Public Utilities, told "Komersant Ukrainian" in a commentary.
Tariffs after the war
According to the expert, a tariff increase is planned for 2026 with a return to the alleged market value of gas. However, Popenko emphasizes that there is no market in the classical sense in Ukraine.
“We have virtually no gas market. Gas sales are completely monopolized: from production to distribution, Naftogaz controls everything. The 3-5% of gas traded on the exchange does not form a market price,” the expert says.
At the same time, the government has not yet explained who will determine the new “market” prices and by what methodology.
Compensation for the difference in tariffs
According to Popenko, the issue of compensation for the difference between the cost of gas and tariffs for district heating companies (DHCs) remains critical. He reminds that the tariffs for district heating companies have not actually been revised since 2020, when local governments did not approve their increase.
Because of this, the difference between actual costs and prices paid by consumers is growing rapidly.
“There are estimates of 50-60 billion hryvnias. Some say even 170 billion, which is the difference in tariffs that Teplocomunenergo needs to compensate for,” Popenko said.
What about the distribution tariff
A separate issue is the cost of gas transportation, which has been criticized by consumers in recent years. The model provides for payment for the pipe to the house, so regardless of consumption, the fee remains.
Popenko reminds that this tariff can also be revised only after the situation stabilizes and martial law is lifted. Systemic changes require updating the regulatory policy and reviewing the activities of regional gas companies.
When is a tariff review possible?
According to experts, it will be possible to return to the discussion of a real increase only after
- the end of the war and the restoration of predictable consumption,
- changes in the regulatory framework that will determine new pricing principles,
- resolving the issue of compensation for the difference in tariffs to avoid further debts of the heating companies.
At the same time , Oleksiy Kucherenko, an energy expert and former minister, warns of a possible tariff increase in the spring of 2026.
“In the spring, we may find ourselves in a situation where Naftogaz will have neither gas nor money, only huge debts, loans and liabilities,” Kucherenko said.
He assumes that the company’s management and international partners will be very tough in demanding an increase in gas prices for the population.
“It is difficult to predict how the government and the Verkhovna Rada will behave. I can only say that the political situation, social and military components may influence the decision. Some factions, including Batkivshchyna, will be against the increase,” the expert added.
Kucherenko emphasizes that there are currently no legal grounds for changing tariffs, and the financial condition of Naftogaz is “catastrophic” due to the previous management and actions of governments.
He warns that without measures to recapitalize the company in the spring of 2026, there may be an urgent need to revise gas prices for households to market levels.
