The Economist: The risk of violence in the US elections is real, but talk of civil war is nonsense
6 November 2024 10:35
Many Americans fear that the situation in the country may deteriorate after the election, with some even talking about a “civil war.” But how bad can things really be? The situation in the United States was investigated by The Economist, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports.
According to an AP/NORC poll, three-quarters of Americans are worried about post-election violence, the publication states and mentions the prediction of Robert Pape, a University of Chicago scholar who studies political violence.
He conducted surveys of voters both remotely and in person at rallies. Based on this data, Pape says frankly: “We are entering a season of political violence.”
This is based on the data that a significant number – one-fifth of Americans – say they support the use of violence to either return Donald Trump to the presidency or prevent him from taking it.
What will violence look like if it happens?
Much depends on the outcome. If it becomes clear that Kamala Harris is winning by a small margin, one possibility is protests in places where the counting is done (as happened in 2020), fueled by conspiracy theories about fraud. Even if she wins a landslide victory, sporadic incidents of violence against Democrats by agitated or paranoid individuals could increase.
In the event of a Trump victory, on the contrary, we can fear large-scale protests in major cities, some of which could escalate into violent riots.
Robert Pape emphasizes that, according to his data, people support violence on both sides of the political divide. But the risk is unevenly balanced.
According to another study conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute, Republicans are three times more likely than Democrats to believe that “true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country.” And incitement can turn support for violence into action. In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump came close to doing just that.
But there are reasons for optimism
The Economist notes that there is reason to hope that the current election will go more smoothly than in 2020.
First of all, local authorities are better prepared. According to the Brennan Center for Justice, 92% of local election authorities across America have taken steps to improve election security and personnel.
In general, the police seem to be prepared. And election officials have taken steps, including live streaming from the ballot boxes, in an attempt to build confidence in the process.
“Will it be enough?” asks The Economist, concluding that predictions of imminent civil war have been clearly exaggerated. Even widespread violence seems unlikely. However, violations and a few unpleasant incidents are inevitable and occur in every election.
CBS News reported the day before: Trump said there will be “no violence” after the election and he expects “a very big victory”.
