China’s trade with Russia has declined for the first time in five years: what is behind the reversal after record highs?
14 January 22:14
Trade between China and Russia declined in 2025 for the first time in five years, interrupting a period of continuous growth that had lasted since 2021.
This is evidenced by Chinese customs data cited by Reuters, reports "Komersant Ukrainian".
The total volume of bilateral trade amounted to 1.63 trillion yuan (about $234 billion), which is 6.5% less than the record figures for 2024. In dollar terms, the decline reached almost 7%.
What exactly has decreased
The most noticeable decline was recorded in Chinese exports to Russia, down 9.9% for the year. Analysts attribute this primarily to the fall in demand for Chinese cars in the Russian market, which in previous years had become one of the key sales markets for the Chinese automotive industry.
Imports from Russia also decreased by 3.4%. One of the reasons was the fall in the price of Russian crude oil, which China has been actively purchasing since the introduction of Western sanctions against Moscow.
End of four years of growth
The decline in 2025 put an end to four years of growth in trade between the two countries. The last decline was recorded in 2020, when global restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted international supply chains.
After that, trade volumes between Beijing and Moscow grew rapidly as Russia became isolated from Western markets and reoriented its exports toward China.
Signs of recovery at the end of the year
At the same time, December statistics showed some signs of recovery. Exports from China to Russia rose by 2.2% in December, ending an eight-month decline, while imports from Russia jumped sharply by 17.1%.
However, these figures were not enough to reverse the overall trend for the year.
The decline in trade is occurring against the backdrop of tightening restrictions on Russian oil exports. According to estimates by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the current restrictions on maritime exports could reduce Russia’s revenues by at least $30 billion annually.
This puts additional pressure on the Russian economy — even with the strategic partnership with China remaining intact — and calls into question whether bilateral trade will be able to return to record levels in the near future.
